Current forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency point to a Tokyo minimum of 23°C on September 22, driven by persistent southerly flow, clear to partly cloudy skies overnight, and sea surface temperatures near seasonal norms that limit radiative cooling. Historical September lows average 20–22°C, with late-month values often dipping toward 19°C under clearer or northerly regimes, yet recent atmospheric stability has supported milder readings. Trader consensus at 93% for 23°C reflects these conditions and the narrow resolution window. A stronger cold front, increased cloud cover trapping heat differently, or unexpected precipitation could realistically shift the low to 21–22°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 22?
23°C 96%
22°C 4%
21°C 3%
20°C <1%
$10,730 Vol.
$10,730 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
3%
22°C
4%
23°C
96%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 96%
22°C 4%
21°C 3%
20°C <1%
$10,730 Vol.
$10,730 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
18°C or below
$131 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$481 Vol.
1%
20°C
$1,000 Vol.
1%
21°C
$457 Vol.
3%
22°C
$937 Vol.
4%
23°C
$2,475 Vol.
96%
24°C
$3,499 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,166 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$478 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$28 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$78 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency point to a Tokyo minimum of 23°C on September 22, driven by persistent southerly flow, clear to partly cloudy skies overnight, and sea surface temperatures near seasonal norms that limit radiative cooling. Historical September lows average 20–22°C, with late-month values often dipping toward 19°C under clearer or northerly regimes, yet recent atmospheric stability has supported milder readings. Trader consensus at 93% for 23°C reflects these conditions and the narrow resolution window. A stronger cold front, increased cloud cover trapping heat differently, or unexpected precipitation could realistically shift the low to 21–22°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$10,730End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency point to a Tokyo minimum of 23°C on September 22, driven by persistent southerly flow, clear to partly cloudy skies overnight, and sea surface temperatures near seasonal norms that limit radiative cooling. Historical September lows average 20–22°C, with late-month values often dipping toward 19°C under clearer or northerly regimes, yet recent atmospheric stability has supported milder readings. Trader consensus at 93% for 23°C reflects these conditions and the narrow resolution window. A stronger cold front, increased cloud cover trapping heat differently, or unexpected precipitation could realistically shift the low to 21–22°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,730End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency point to a Tokyo minimum of 23°C on September 22, driven by persistent southerly flow, clear to partly cloudy skies overnight, and sea surface temperatures near seasonal norms that limit radiative cooling. Historical September lows average 20–22°C, with late-month values often dipping toward 19°C under clearer or northerly regimes, yet recent atmospheric stability has supported milder readings. Trader consensus at 93% for 23°C reflects these conditions and the narrow resolution window. A stronger cold front, increased cloud cover trapping heat differently, or unexpected precipitation could realistically shift the low to 21–22°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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