SpaceX's robust revenue trajectory, including 33% year-over-year growth to $18.7 billion in 2025 and accelerating Starlink subscriber gains to over 10 million, underpins the 99.7% market-implied probability that the company will surpass consensus estimates for its Q2 2026 results, due after market close today. Traders price in continued operational momentum from satellite broadband and launch services amid the firm's post-IPO trading environment. While the near-certain consensus reflects consistent historical beats and positive leading indicators, realistic tail risks include heavier-than-expected capital expenditures on AI infrastructure or regulatory setbacks that could pressure margins and alter the outcome.