Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources converge on a daily maximum of 31–32°C for Shenzhen on September 24, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 42% and 29.5% implied probability. Late-September subtropical conditions, including moderate easterly flow, partly cloudy skies, and isolated showers, are expected to cap daytime heating near seasonal norms of 31°C while preventing spikes above 33°C. Hourly model runs and current observations showing afternoon peaks near 31°C have reinforced trader consensus, though scattered convection introduces minor uncertainty in the final official reading. Resolution will depend on the highest verified station temperature reported by Chinese meteorological authorities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on September 24?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 24?
32°C 45%
31°C 35%
33°C 26%
30°C 3%
NEW
$16,733 Vol.
NEW
$16,733 Vol.
Sep 24, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
3%
31°C
35%
32°C
45%
33°C
26%
34°C
2%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 45%
31°C 35%
33°C 26%
30°C 3%
NEW
$16,733 Vol.
NEW
$16,733 Vol.
Sep 24, 2026
27°C or below
$375 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$100 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$470 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$2,384 Vol.
3%
31°C
$2,836 Vol.
35%
32°C
$2,970 Vol.
45%
33°C
$5,690 Vol.
26%
34°C
$1,262 Vol.
2%
35°C
$457 Vol.
1%
36°C
$95 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$95 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources converge on a daily maximum of 31–32°C for Shenzhen on September 24, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 42% and 29.5% implied probability. Late-September subtropical conditions, including moderate easterly flow, partly cloudy skies, and isolated showers, are expected to cap daytime heating near seasonal norms of 31°C while preventing spikes above 33°C. Hourly model runs and current observations showing afternoon peaks near 31°C have reinforced trader consensus, though scattered convection introduces minor uncertainty in the final official reading. Resolution will depend on the highest verified station temperature reported by Chinese meteorological authorities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$16,733End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources converge on a daily maximum of 31–32°C for Shenzhen on September 24, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 42% and 29.5% implied probability. Late-September subtropical conditions, including moderate easterly flow, partly cloudy skies, and isolated showers, are expected to cap daytime heating near seasonal norms of 31°C while preventing spikes above 33°C. Hourly model runs and current observations showing afternoon peaks near 31°C have reinforced trader consensus, though scattered convection introduces minor uncertainty in the final official reading. Resolution will depend on the highest verified station temperature reported by Chinese meteorological authorities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,733End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47de9d...Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources converge on a daily maximum of 31–32°C for Shenzhen on September 24, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 42% and 29.5% implied probability. Late-September subtropical conditions, including moderate easterly flow, partly cloudy skies, and isolated showers, are expected to cap daytime heating near seasonal norms of 31°C while preventing spikes above 33°C. Hourly model runs and current observations showing afternoon peaks near 31°C have reinforced trader consensus, though scattered convection introduces minor uncertainty in the final official reading. Resolution will depend on the highest verified station temperature reported by Chinese meteorological authorities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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