Trader consensus on the Paris temperature market centers on model consensus for a maximum of 22–23°C on September 21, driven by a strengthening anticyclone over the North Atlantic and British Isles that maintains northeasterly flow and partly cloudy skies across Île-de-France. Official guidance and GFS-based forecasts indicate afternoon highs near 22–23°C after overnight lows around 12–13°C, with negligible precipitation risk and light winds under 10 km/h—conditions aligned with the 56.5% implied probability for 23°C and 34.5% for 22°C. Recent stability in high-pressure patterns has limited forecast variability, though minor model spreads on cloud cover could still nudge readings toward 24°C or hold them at 22°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on September 21?
Highest temperature in Paris on September 21?
23°C 55%
22°C 37%
24°C 9%
21°C 3%
NEW
$32,179 Vol.
NEW
$32,179 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
3%
22°C
37%
23°C
55%
24°C
9%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 55%
22°C 37%
24°C 9%
21°C 3%
NEW
$32,179 Vol.
NEW
$32,179 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
18°C or below
$2,172 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,737 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,017 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$3,020 Vol.
3%
22°C
$6,389 Vol.
37%
23°C
$6,624 Vol.
55%
24°C
$5,747 Vol.
9%
25°C
$2,365 Vol.
1%
26°C
$701 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$277 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$1,287 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on the Paris temperature market centers on model consensus for a maximum of 22–23°C on September 21, driven by a strengthening anticyclone over the North Atlantic and British Isles that maintains northeasterly flow and partly cloudy skies across Île-de-France. Official guidance and GFS-based forecasts indicate afternoon highs near 22–23°C after overnight lows around 12–13°C, with negligible precipitation risk and light winds under 10 km/h—conditions aligned with the 56.5% implied probability for 23°C and 34.5% for 22°C. Recent stability in high-pressure patterns has limited forecast variability, though minor model spreads on cloud cover could still nudge readings toward 24°C or hold them at 22°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$32,179End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on the Paris temperature market centers on model consensus for a maximum of 22–23°C on September 21, driven by a strengthening anticyclone over the North Atlantic and British Isles that maintains northeasterly flow and partly cloudy skies across Île-de-France. Official guidance and GFS-based forecasts indicate afternoon highs near 22–23°C after overnight lows around 12–13°C, with negligible precipitation risk and light winds under 10 km/h—conditions aligned with the 56.5% implied probability for 23°C and 34.5% for 22°C. Recent stability in high-pressure patterns has limited forecast variability, though minor model spreads on cloud cover could still nudge readings toward 24°C or hold them at 22°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$32,179End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the Paris temperature market centers on model consensus for a maximum of 22–23°C on September 21, driven by a strengthening anticyclone over the North Atlantic and British Isles that maintains northeasterly flow and partly cloudy skies across Île-de-France. Official guidance and GFS-based forecasts indicate afternoon highs near 22–23°C after overnight lows around 12–13°C, with negligible precipitation risk and light winds under 10 km/h—conditions aligned with the 56.5% implied probability for 23°C and 34.5% for 22°C. Recent stability in high-pressure patterns has limited forecast variability, though minor model spreads on cloud cover could still nudge readings toward 24°C or hold them at 22°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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