North Korea has conducted three distinct missile test events in October 2026, featuring ballistic missiles on October 3 and October 12 plus submarine-launched cruise missiles on October 14. These launches reflect Pyongyang’s ongoing efforts to diversify its arsenal with hypersonic, intermediate-range, and underwater systems amid joint U.S.-South Korea exercises and South Korea’s own hypersonic glide vehicle test. No further tests have been reported in the final two weeks of the month, supporting trader consensus around a total of three for the full period. The modest probability attached to four or more aligns with the absence of recent escalatory signals or scheduled events likely to prompt additional launches before October 31.