Stable high-pressure conditions across northern Italy are driving clear skies and light easterly winds over Milan on September 22, supporting afternoon temperatures that peak near 25°C according to consensus from regional models and surface observations. This aligns with late-September climatology for the Po Valley, where solar heating under minimal cloud cover typically produces highs in the mid-20s Celsius without significant moisture or frontal influences. The 95.5% market-implied probability for 25°C reflects strong agreement across forecasts, with only minor model spread possible from localized variations in boundary-layer mixing. A realistic shift could occur if unexpected afternoon cloud build-up or stronger winds develop, potentially capping the daily maximum at 24°C, though current guidance shows low likelihood of such changes before evening cooling sets in.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on September 22?
Highest temperature in Milan on September 22?
25°C 95%
26°C 4%
27°C <1%
19°C or below <1%
$64,158 Vol.
$64,158 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
95%
26°C
4%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 95%
26°C 4%
27°C <1%
19°C or below <1%
$64,158 Vol.
$64,158 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
19°C or below
$3,407 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$125 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$125 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$17,323 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$12,993 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$6,308 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$5,811 Vol.
95%
26°C
$6,251 Vol.
4%
27°C
$4,809 Vol.
1%
28°C
$4,651 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$2,353 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable high-pressure conditions across northern Italy are driving clear skies and light easterly winds over Milan on September 22, supporting afternoon temperatures that peak near 25°C according to consensus from regional models and surface observations. This aligns with late-September climatology for the Po Valley, where solar heating under minimal cloud cover typically produces highs in the mid-20s Celsius without significant moisture or frontal influences. The 95.5% market-implied probability for 25°C reflects strong agreement across forecasts, with only minor model spread possible from localized variations in boundary-layer mixing. A realistic shift could occur if unexpected afternoon cloud build-up or stronger winds develop, potentially capping the daily maximum at 24°C, though current guidance shows low likelihood of such changes before evening cooling sets in.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$64,158End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable high-pressure conditions across northern Italy are driving clear skies and light easterly winds over Milan on September 22, supporting afternoon temperatures that peak near 25°C according to consensus from regional models and surface observations. This aligns with late-September climatology for the Po Valley, where solar heating under minimal cloud cover typically produces highs in the mid-20s Celsius without significant moisture or frontal influences. The 95.5% market-implied probability for 25°C reflects strong agreement across forecasts, with only minor model spread possible from localized variations in boundary-layer mixing. A realistic shift could occur if unexpected afternoon cloud build-up or stronger winds develop, potentially capping the daily maximum at 24°C, though current guidance shows low likelihood of such changes before evening cooling sets in.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$64,158End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Stable high-pressure conditions across northern Italy are driving clear skies and light easterly winds over Milan on September 22, supporting afternoon temperatures that peak near 25°C according to consensus from regional models and surface observations. This aligns with late-September climatology for the Po Valley, where solar heating under minimal cloud cover typically produces highs in the mid-20s Celsius without significant moisture or frontal influences. The 95.5% market-implied probability for 25°C reflects strong agreement across forecasts, with only minor model spread possible from localized variations in boundary-layer mixing. A realistic shift could occur if unexpected afternoon cloud build-up or stronger winds develop, potentially capping the daily maximum at 24°C, though current guidance shows low likelihood of such changes before evening cooling sets in.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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