Meta's closely balanced 50% odds for beating Q2 2026 earnings estimates reflect uncertainty ahead of the July 29 release, with consensus EPS around $7.20 amid robust advertising revenue trends offset by elevated AI-driven capital expenditure expectations. The company delivered a strong Q1 beat with $10.44 EPS versus $6.67 consensus but saw shares decline on capex guidance and a minor revenue shortfall, highlighting trader focus on spending efficiency and forward outlook. Factors include digital ad market resilience, competitive AI positioning, and macroeconomic influences on advertiser budgets. The earnings report and accompanying guidance will likely serve as the decisive catalyst.