Recent August core PCE data, released September 30 at 3.0% year-over-year—well below the 3.3-3.4% consensus—has anchored trader expectations for the September reading near 3.0-3.1%. The softer print reflected BEA methodology revisions from the annual national accounts update alongside subdued monthly gains of 0.2%, even as headline PCE held at 3.4% and consumer spending accelerated. With the next FOMC meeting approaching and the Fed prioritizing this gauge, markets are weighing persistent service-sector inflation against signs of cooling momentum. Upcoming September CPI and retail sales releases could further shape the implied distribution ahead of the late-October PCE release.