**Forecast models converge on a minimum temperature near 21–22°C for Chongqing on September 29, 2026, driven by persistent cloud cover and light rain that limit nighttime radiative cooling.** High humidity (often 80–95%) and overcast skies trap heat near the surface, while light winds prevent strong advection of cooler air. Recent observations show overnight lows holding around 23–24°C amid similar conditions, consistent with the seasonal transition from summer warmth without an incoming cold front. Multiple sources project a low of 21–23°C under continued light precipitation and moderate humidity, positioning 21°C as the mode. Trader consensus at 66.5% for 21°C reflects this model agreement, with lower probabilities assigned to cooler outliers that would require clearer skies or stronger cooling not currently indicated. Updated model runs and local observations through the evening of September 28 will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.