Current forecasts from multiple models point to a Cape Town overnight minimum near 13–16°C under persistent overcast skies, light to moderate northwest winds, and high humidity that limit radiational cooling. These conditions, influenced by the Benguela Current and a lingering marine layer, support the market’s tight split between 12°C and 13°C while keeping lower outcomes at 45% implied probability. Minor model differences in timing of any wind shift or partial clearing could determine whether the reading settles at 12°C or edges to 11°C or below; official South African Weather Service observations will resolve the market once the full daily minimum is recorded.