Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and GFS models indicate mostly sunny conditions with light southerly winds for Beijing on September 21, supporting afternoon highs near 29–31°C after overnight clearing. This consensus drives the tight market clustering around 30–31°C, as traders weigh minor model differences in peak solar heating, boundary-layer mixing, and any residual morning cloud cover that could cap temperatures at 29°C versus allowing a brief spike to 31°C. Historical September averages near 26–28°C provide context, but the current stable high-pressure pattern favors the upper end of the distribution. Final official station readings tomorrow evening will resolve the market, with any last-minute forecast adjustments likely shifting implied odds in the hours before peak heating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on September 21?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 21?
31°C 51%
30°C 31%
29°C 15%
32°C 6%
NEW
$20,618 Vol.
NEW
$20,618 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
15%
30°C
31%
31°C
51%
32°C
6%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
1%
31°C 51%
30°C 31%
29°C 15%
32°C 6%
NEW
$20,618 Vol.
NEW
$20,618 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
24°C or below
$421 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$321 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$891 Vol.
1%
27°C
$1,692 Vol.
1%
28°C
$1,432 Vol.
2%
29°C
$2,348 Vol.
15%
30°C
$2,081 Vol.
31%
31°C
$8,301 Vol.
51%
32°C
$1,443 Vol.
6%
33°C
$909 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$778 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and GFS models indicate mostly sunny conditions with light southerly winds for Beijing on September 21, supporting afternoon highs near 29–31°C after overnight clearing. This consensus drives the tight market clustering around 30–31°C, as traders weigh minor model differences in peak solar heating, boundary-layer mixing, and any residual morning cloud cover that could cap temperatures at 29°C versus allowing a brief spike to 31°C. Historical September averages near 26–28°C provide context, but the current stable high-pressure pattern favors the upper end of the distribution. Final official station readings tomorrow evening will resolve the market, with any last-minute forecast adjustments likely shifting implied odds in the hours before peak heating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$20,618End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and GFS models indicate mostly sunny conditions with light southerly winds for Beijing on September 21, supporting afternoon highs near 29–31°C after overnight clearing. This consensus drives the tight market clustering around 30–31°C, as traders weigh minor model differences in peak solar heating, boundary-layer mixing, and any residual morning cloud cover that could cap temperatures at 29°C versus allowing a brief spike to 31°C. Historical September averages near 26–28°C provide context, but the current stable high-pressure pattern favors the upper end of the distribution. Final official station readings tomorrow evening will resolve the market, with any last-minute forecast adjustments likely shifting implied odds in the hours before peak heating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20,618End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and GFS models indicate mostly sunny conditions with light southerly winds for Beijing on September 21, supporting afternoon highs near 29–31°C after overnight clearing. This consensus drives the tight market clustering around 30–31°C, as traders weigh minor model differences in peak solar heating, boundary-layer mixing, and any residual morning cloud cover that could cap temperatures at 29°C versus allowing a brief spike to 31°C. Historical September averages near 26–28°C provide context, but the current stable high-pressure pattern favors the upper end of the distribution. Final official station readings tomorrow evening will resolve the market, with any last-minute forecast adjustments likely shifting implied odds in the hours before peak heating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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