114 results for Iran US ceasefire

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market — a platform where people buy and sell shares in the outcomes of real-world events. Topics span politics, sports, crypto, finance, geopolitics, culture, and more. Share prices range from $0.01 to $0.99 and represent the crowd's real-time estimate of how likely an event is to happen. If you buy a share at $0.30 and the outcome occurs, that share pays out $1.00, giving you a $0.70 profit. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, Polymarket does not act as the house — it never takes the opposing side of your trade or profits from your losses. Instead, it operates as a peer-to-peer prediction market where every trade is matched against another participant. You can buy or sell shares at any time before a market resolves, making it easy to lock in profits or cut losses as new information develops.

A prediction market is a type of exchange where participants trade on the outcome of future events rather than stocks or commodities. Prices in a prediction market function as probabilities: a share trading at $0.75 implies the crowd sees roughly a 75% chance that outcome will happen. Because traders put real money behind their views, they are financially motivated to be accurate, which harnesses what researchers call the "wisdom of crowds." Academic work — including studies from the Iowa Electronic Markets and the research cited in James Surowiecki's The Wisdom of Crowds — has repeatedly shown that prediction markets tend to produce more accurate forecasts than polls, pundits, or individual experts alone. On Polymarket, this principle is applied across thousands of markets covering elections, crypto prices, geopolitical developments, sports championships, and much more.

Polymarket hosts thousands of active prediction markets across a wide range of categories. On this page you can view real-time odds and trade on popular predictions like "What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?," "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?," and "Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?" — along with markets on Fed interest-rate decisions, crude oil futures, Eurovision, NBA champions, Formula 1, and breaking geopolitical events. You can browse predictions by category — including Sports, Politics, Crypto, Awards, Economy, and more — or use the search and filter tools to find the exact market you're looking for. New markets are added regularly as newsworthy events emerge.

Odds on Polymarket are expressed as prices between $0.01 and $0.99, and each price directly represents an implied probability. For example, if "Yes" shares on a market are trading at $0.65, traders collectively estimate a 65% chance that the event will happen. Prices update continuously as traders react to new information — news reports, data releases, policy changes — making Polymarket odds a live, crowd-sourced signal of how likely an event is at any given moment.

Polymarket publishes its track record on a dedicated Accuracy page. As of the latest data, Polymarket odds are accurate over 90% of the time a full month before a market resolves, and that figure rises above 96% within four hours of resolution. The platform also reports a Brier score — a standard statistical measure where lower numbers mean better calibration — of 0.0843 across resolved markets. In practical terms, this means that when Polymarket prices indicate a 70% probability, the corresponding outcome happens roughly 70% of the time. Research consistently shows that prediction markets with real financial stakes tend to outperform polls, expert panels, and pundit forecasts because traders are rewarded for accuracy and penalized for being wrong.

Three structural advantages drive accuracy. First, real money is on the line — traders who take wrong positions lose capital, which creates a strong incentive to be honest and well-informed rather than ideological or performative. Second, prices update continuously. While a traditional poll may reflect opinion from days ago, Polymarket odds adjust in real time as news breaks and conditions change. Third, prediction markets aggregate information from a diverse crowd of participants — each bringing different data points, expertise, and perspectives — rather than relying on a single methodology or a small panel of experts. This combination of financial skin in the game, real-time responsiveness, and crowd-sourced diversity is why academic research, including studies from the Iowa Electronic Markets, has found prediction markets consistently rival or outperform traditional forecasting methods.

The most actively traded predictions are displayed at the top of this page, sorted by recent trading activity. Some of the current popular markets include "US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?," "US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?," and "Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?." Each listing shows key data at a glance: current probability, total volume traded, daily volume, and available liquidity. You can sort markets by trending, volume, liquidity, newest, or ending soon to find what matters most to you. Odds shift throughout the day as events unfold and traders react, so the rankings on this page are always evolving.

Yes. You can use Polymarket as a free, real-time information tool without ever placing a trade. Many people visit the platform simply to track odds on elections, crypto prices, geopolitical events, sports outcomes, and other topics. Each market page shows a live probability chart, trading volume, and comment threads — all of which provide a data-driven snapshot of crowd sentiment. You can also browse this predictions page to see what topics the market is focused on right now. No account or deposit is required to view odds.

Sign up for an account and deposit funds using crypto (USDC), a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, browse the predictions on this page or search for a specific topic. When you find a market you want to trade, choose "Yes" or "No" (or pick a specific outcome in multi-outcome markets), set the number of shares you want to buy, and confirm. You can sell your shares at any time before the market resolves — you are not locked into a position. If you hold winning shares when the market resolves, each share pays out $1.00. Please note that Polymarket has geographic restrictions, so check the platform's eligibility requirements for your region before signing up.

Every market on Polymarket has a predefined set of resolution rules and designated sources, both listed in the "Rules" section of the market's page. These sources — which vary by market and may include official government announcements, major news agencies, or other authoritative data providers — establish in advance exactly how an outcome will be verified.