Polymarket traders are pricing a modest 45% implied probability for silver (SI) surpassing $32 by March 31, driven primarily by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts weakening the USD index, which has fallen 2% this month amid cooling inflation data. Spot silver holds near $31.20, supported by robust industrial demand from solar panels and electronics, up 15% YoY per USGS supply reports, though mine output constraints cap upside. Key catalysts ahead include the March 19 FOMC meeting—where markets imply 75bps cuts by year-end—and weekly COT data showing rising net longs. Historical precedent shows silver rallying 5-10% post-Fed pivots, but ETF outflows could trigger pullbacks if yields rebound.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$1,000,747 Объем
↑ $200
<1%
↑ $170
<1%
↑ $150
<1%
↑ $140
1%
↑ $130
1%
↑ $125
1%
↑ $120
1%
↑ $115
1%
↑ $110
1%
↑ $105
2%
↑ $100
2%
↑ $95
4%
↓ $65
55%
↓ $60
20%
↓ $50
4%
↓ $40
1%
↓ $25
<1%
$1,000,747 Объем
↑ $200
<1%
↑ $170
<1%
↑ $150
<1%
↑ $140
1%
↑ $130
1%
↑ $125
1%
↑ $120
1%
↑ $115
1%
↑ $110
1%
↑ $105
2%
↑ $100
2%
↑ $95
4%
↓ $65
55%
↓ $60
20%
↓ $50
4%
↓ $40
1%
↓ $25
<1%
For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.
Открытие рынка: Mar 2, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders are pricing a modest 45% implied probability for silver (SI) surpassing $32 by March 31, driven primarily by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts weakening the USD index, which has fallen 2% this month amid cooling inflation data. Spot silver holds near $31.20, supported by robust industrial demand from solar panels and electronics, up 15% YoY per USGS supply reports, though mine output constraints cap upside. Key catalysts ahead include the March 19 FOMC meeting—where markets imply 75bps cuts by year-end—and weekly COT data showing rising net longs. Historical precedent shows silver rallying 5-10% post-Fed pivots, but ETF outflows could trigger pullbacks if yields rebound.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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