Geopolitical supply shocks from the ongoing US-Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver behind traders’ 74.5% implied probability that June WTI crude settles above $84. Persistent production shut-ins across the Middle East, totaling roughly 10.5 million barrels per day in April, have tightened global inventories and kept front-month futures near $100–$102 even after modest recent declines. Market-implied odds reflect the embedded risk premium while acknowledging potential easing if shipping lanes normalize later this quarter. With the EIA forecasting Brent prices near $106 for June amid limited downward pressure until flows resume, the narrow 12.5% probability band between $77 and $84 captures limited scope for rapid de-escalation before month-end settlement.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНа что будет рассчитана цена на сырую нефть (CL) в июне?
На что будет рассчитана цена на сырую нефть (CL) в июне?
>$84 70%
$77-$84 13%
$70–$77 5.6%
$63-$70 1.7%
$190,265 Объем
$190,265 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
< $42
<1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56–$63
1%
$63-$70
2%
$70–$77
6%
$77-$84
13%
>$84
70%
>$84 70%
$77-$84 13%
$70–$77 5.6%
$63-$70 1.7%
$190,265 Объем
$190,265 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
< $42
$20,311 Объем
<1%
$42-$49
$9,524 Объем
1%
$49-$56
$10,491 Объем
1%
$56–$63
$10,239 Объем
1%
$63-$70
$24,499 Объем
2%
$70–$77
$15,233 Объем
6%
$77-$84
$16,438 Объем
13%
>$84
$83,531 Объем
70%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical supply shocks from the ongoing US-Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver behind traders’ 74.5% implied probability that June WTI crude settles above $84. Persistent production shut-ins across the Middle East, totaling roughly 10.5 million barrels per day in April, have tightened global inventories and kept front-month futures near $100–$102 even after modest recent declines. Market-implied odds reflect the embedded risk premium while acknowledging potential easing if shipping lanes normalize later this quarter. With the EIA forecasting Brent prices near $106 for June amid limited downward pressure until flows resume, the narrow 12.5% probability band between $77 and $84 captures limited scope for rapid de-escalation before month-end settlement.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Открытие рынка: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Объем
$190,265Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.htmlResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical supply shocks from the ongoing US-Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver behind traders’ 74.5% implied probability that June WTI crude settles above $84. Persistent production shut-ins across the Middle East, totaling roughly 10.5 million barrels per day in April, have tightened global inventories and kept front-month futures near $100–$102 even after modest recent declines. Market-implied odds reflect the embedded risk premium while acknowledging potential easing if shipping lanes normalize later this quarter. With the EIA forecasting Brent prices near $106 for June amid limited downward pressure until flows resume, the narrow 12.5% probability band between $77 and $84 captures limited scope for rapid de-escalation before month-end settlement.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Объем
$190,265Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.htmlResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Geopolitical supply shocks from the ongoing US-Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver behind traders’ 74.5% implied probability that June WTI crude settles above $84. Persistent production shut-ins across the Middle East, totaling roughly 10.5 million barrels per day in April, have tightened global inventories and kept front-month futures near $100–$102 even after modest recent declines. Market-implied odds reflect the embedded risk premium while acknowledging potential easing if shipping lanes normalize later this quarter. With the EIA forecasting Brent prices near $106 for June amid limited downward pressure until flows resume, the narrow 12.5% probability band between $77 and $84 captures limited scope for rapid de-escalation before month-end settlement.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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