Polymarket traders assign a 45% implied probability to silver (SI) futures surpassing $32 by March 31, reflecting caution amid softening industrial demand from China and persistent Fed rate hike risks despite recent spot prices hovering near $31.50 per ounce, per COMEX data. Key drivers include silver's 85% correlation to gold, which rallied 5% last week on safe-haven flows, offset by elevated US Treasury yields pressuring precious metals. Watch March 12 CPI release and FOMC meeting March 19-20 for inflation signals that could sway dollar strength; a print above 3.2% consensus might cap upside, while sub-3% could boost odds toward 60%. Historical March seasonality shows 60% hit rate above prior closes when gold gains 3%+.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$1,004,712 Объем
↑ $200
<1%
↑ $170
<1%
↑ $150
<1%
↑ $140
1%
↑ $130
1%
↑ $125
1%
↑ $120
1%
↑ $115
1%
↑ $110
1%
↑ $105
2%
↑ $100
2%
↑ $95
4%
↓ $65
57%
↓ $60
26%
↓ $50
4%
↓ $40
1%
↓ $25
<1%
$1,004,712 Объем
↑ $200
<1%
↑ $170
<1%
↑ $150
<1%
↑ $140
1%
↑ $130
1%
↑ $125
1%
↑ $120
1%
↑ $115
1%
↑ $110
1%
↑ $105
2%
↑ $100
2%
↑ $95
4%
↓ $65
57%
↓ $60
26%
↓ $50
4%
↓ $40
1%
↓ $25
<1%
For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.
Открытие рынка: Mar 2, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
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0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign a 45% implied probability to silver (SI) futures surpassing $32 by March 31, reflecting caution amid softening industrial demand from China and persistent Fed rate hike risks despite recent spot prices hovering near $31.50 per ounce, per COMEX data. Key drivers include silver's 85% correlation to gold, which rallied 5% last week on safe-haven flows, offset by elevated US Treasury yields pressuring precious metals. Watch March 12 CPI release and FOMC meeting March 19-20 for inflation signals that could sway dollar strength; a print above 3.2% consensus might cap upside, while sub-3% could boost odds toward 60%. Historical March seasonality shows 60% hit rate above prior closes when gold gains 3%+.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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