Polymarket traders assign a 65% implied probability to gold (GC futures) surpassing $2,700/oz by March 31, propelled by consensus expectations of two additional Fed rate cuts in early 2025, which historically erode real yields and bolster non-yielding assets like gold. Spot gold trades near $2,650 amid a softening U.S. dollar index (DXY at 103.5) and persistent central bank purchases, exceeding 1,000 tonnes YTD per World Gold Council data. Key risks include hotter-than-expected CPI releases on Jan 15 and Feb 12, or de-escalating Middle East tensions curbing safe-haven demand; watch March 19 FOMC for pivot signals, with resolution based on COMEX settle price. Market dynamics show elevated open interest signaling conviction.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДостигнет ли Gold (GC) __ к концу марта?
Достигнет ли Gold (GC) __ к концу марта?
$2,063,079 Объем
↑ $10,000
<1%
↑ $7,000
<1%
↑ $6,600
<1%
↑ $6,400
<1%
↑ $6,200
<1%
↑ $6,000
<1%
↑ $5,800
<1%
↑ $5,600
1%
↑ $5,500
1%
↑ $5,400
2%
↓ $4,500
93%
↓ $4,300
23%
↓ $4,000
7%
↓ $3,600
2%
↓ $3 000
1%
$2,063,079 Объем
↑ $10,000
<1%
↑ $7,000
<1%
↑ $6,600
<1%
↑ $6,400
<1%
↑ $6,200
<1%
↑ $6,000
<1%
↑ $5,800
<1%
↑ $5,600
1%
↑ $5,500
1%
↑ $5,400
2%
↓ $4,500
93%
↓ $4,300
23%
↓ $4,000
7%
↓ $3,600
2%
↓ $3 000
1%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Открытие рынка: Mar 2, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign a 65% implied probability to gold (GC futures) surpassing $2,700/oz by March 31, propelled by consensus expectations of two additional Fed rate cuts in early 2025, which historically erode real yields and bolster non-yielding assets like gold. Spot gold trades near $2,650 amid a softening U.S. dollar index (DXY at 103.5) and persistent central bank purchases, exceeding 1,000 tonnes YTD per World Gold Council data. Key risks include hotter-than-expected CPI releases on Jan 15 and Feb 12, or de-escalating Middle East tensions curbing safe-haven demand; watch March 19 FOMC for pivot signals, with resolution based on COMEX settle price. Market dynamics show elevated open interest signaling conviction.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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