Polymarket traders are pricing a modest 28% implied probability for Gold (GC) futures to hit $2,800 by March 31, driven primarily by Federal Reserve rate cut expectations amid cooling inflation, with CME FedWatch Tool showing 78% odds of a 25bps December cut and 52bps total easing by March. Current spot gold trades at $2,652/oz, up 28% YTD on central bank purchases (2,700 tonnes in 2024 per World Gold Council) and geopolitical tensions boosting safe-haven demand, though a resilient U.S. dollar (DXY at 106.5) caps upside. Key catalysts ahead include November CPI on the 13th and December FOMC on the 18th; a hotter print could reinforce hawkish sentiment and stall the rally.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДостигнет ли Gold (GC) __ к концу марта?
Достигнет ли Gold (GC) __ к концу марта?
$1,872,402 Объем
↑ $10,000
<1%
↑ $7,000
<1%
↑ $6,600
<1%
↑ $6,400
1%
↑ $6,200
<1%
↑ $6,000
1%
↑ $5,800
1%
↑ $5,600
1%
↑ $5,500
1%
↑ $5,400
2%
↓ $4,500
82%
↓ $4,300
35%
↓ $4,000
9%
↓ $3,600
1%
↓ $3 000
1%
$1,872,402 Объем
↑ $10,000
<1%
↑ $7,000
<1%
↑ $6,600
<1%
↑ $6,400
1%
↑ $6,200
<1%
↑ $6,000
1%
↑ $5,800
1%
↑ $5,600
1%
↑ $5,500
1%
↑ $5,400
2%
↓ $4,500
82%
↓ $4,300
35%
↓ $4,000
9%
↓ $3,600
1%
↓ $3 000
1%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Открытие рынка: Mar 2, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders are pricing a modest 28% implied probability for Gold (GC) futures to hit $2,800 by March 31, driven primarily by Federal Reserve rate cut expectations amid cooling inflation, with CME FedWatch Tool showing 78% odds of a 25bps December cut and 52bps total easing by March. Current spot gold trades at $2,652/oz, up 28% YTD on central bank purchases (2,700 tonnes in 2024 per World Gold Council) and geopolitical tensions boosting safe-haven demand, though a resilient U.S. dollar (DXY at 106.5) caps upside. Key catalysts ahead include November CPI on the 13th and December FOMC on the 18th; a hotter print could reinforce hawkish sentiment and stall the rally.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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