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Политика·Джеймс Коми

Who will be arrested before 2027?

icon for Who will be arrested before 2027?
Политика·Джеймс Коми

Who will be arrested before 2027?

$118,883 Объем

Polymarket

$118,883 Объем

Polymarket

John Brennan

$6,657 Объем

33%

Mahmoud Khalil

$1,190 Объем

29%

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

$7,872 Объем

29%

Lee Jun-seok

$555 Объем

25%

James Clapper

$2,645 Объем

25%

Brandon Johnson

$1,887 Объем

21%

Tom Homan

$29,395 Объем

17%

Letitia James

$1,340 Объем

26%

Loretta Lynch

$437 Объем

11%

Anthony Fauci

$8,098 Объем

8%

Candace Owens

$257 Объем

7%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$275 Объем

26%

John Kerry

$97 Объем

6%

Kash Patel

$153 Объем

6%

Adam Schiff

$6,575 Объем

6%

Hillary Clinton

$15,546 Объем

6%

Gavin Newsom

$19,172 Объем

5%

Pam Bondi

$1,539 Объем

5%

James Comey

$9,224 Объем

4%

Bill Clinton

$332 Объем

4%

Barack Obama

$2,842 Объем

4%

Joe Biden

$2,007 Объем

4%

Susan Rice

$262 Объем

47%

Lisa Cook

$523 Объем

46%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on potential arrests before 2027 centers on ongoing or anticipated Department of Justice investigations into former officials, including probes tied to prior intelligence activities, leaks, and prosecutions. High implied probabilities attach to figures such as James Comey amid active grand jury matters, while John Brennan and Letitia James draw moderate attention linked to specific allegations under review. Broader context includes scheduled court proceedings, possible indictments, and executive branch priorities through the remainder of 2026, with outcomes hinging on evidentiary developments, prosecutorial decisions, and any intervening legal rulings. Historical patterns of federal cases involving high-profile targets inform assessments of resolution timelines within the narrow window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$118,883
Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on potential arrests before 2027 centers on ongoing or anticipated Department of Justice investigations into former officials, including probes tied to prior intelligence activities, leaks, and prosecutions. High implied probabilities attach to figures such as James Comey amid active grand jury matters, while John Brennan and Letitia James draw moderate attention linked to specific allegations under review. Broader context includes scheduled court proceedings, possible indictments, and executive branch priorities through the remainder of 2026, with outcomes hinging on evidentiary developments, prosecutorial decisions, and any intervening legal rulings. Historical patterns of federal cases involving high-profile targets inform assessments of resolution timelines within the narrow window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$118,883
Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Who will be arrested before 2027?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 24 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Susan Rice» с 47%, за ним следует «Lisa Cook» с 46%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 47¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 47%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Who will be arrested before 2027?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $118.9K с момента запуска рынка Apr 30, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Who will be arrested before 2027?», просмотри 24 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Who will be arrested before 2027?» — «Susan Rice» с 47%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 47%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Lisa Cook» с 46%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Who will be arrested before 2027?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.