Traders on Polymarket heavily favor a March Crude Oil (CL) settlement above $90 at 75% implied probability, reflecting bullish sentiment driven by escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, including Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities, which threaten supply disruptions amid OPEC+ production cuts extended through Q1 2025. Supporting this, EIA data shows U.S. inventories drawing down faster than expected at -3.6 million barrels last week, while China's stimulus measures bolster demand forecasts to 103 million bpd. March CL futures trade near $72, but trader consensus prices in upside risks, with key thresholds at $85 and $90 hinging on upcoming OPEC+ meetings and ISM manufacturing data; sub-$80 outcomes carry minimal 12% odds amid resilient global growth.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$90+ 75%
$85–$90 13%
$80–$85 5%
$75–$80 3.5%
$609,477 Объем
$609,477 Объем
<$60
1%
$60–$65
1%
$65–$70
1%
$70-$75
2%
$75–$80
4%
$80–$85
5%
$85–$90
13%
$90+
75%
$90+ 75%
$85–$90 13%
$80–$85 5%
$75–$80 3.5%
$609,477 Объем
$609,477 Объем
<$60
1%
$60–$65
1%
$65–$70
1%
$70-$75
2%
$75–$80
4%
$80–$85
5%
$85–$90
13%
$90+
75%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Открытие рынка: Mar 3, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders on Polymarket heavily favor a March Crude Oil (CL) settlement above $90 at 75% implied probability, reflecting bullish sentiment driven by escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, including Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities, which threaten supply disruptions amid OPEC+ production cuts extended through Q1 2025. Supporting this, EIA data shows U.S. inventories drawing down faster than expected at -3.6 million barrels last week, while China's stimulus measures bolster demand forecasts to 103 million bpd. March CL futures trade near $72, but trader consensus prices in upside risks, with key thresholds at $85 and $90 hinging on upcoming OPEC+ meetings and ISM manufacturing data; sub-$80 outcomes carry minimal 12% odds amid resilient global growth.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы