Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 53.5% implied probability to WTI crude (CL) settling at $90+ in March, propelled by escalating Middle East tensions—including Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and fears of broader conflict—tightening global supply amid OPEC+ voluntary cuts extended into Q2. Supporting this bullish skew, recent EIA data revealed a surprise 1.4 million barrel inventory draw last week, while China's stimulus measures signal rebounding demand. A softer USD and Fed rate cut expectations further bolster commodity appeal, though high US shale output and recession risks cap upside. Lower bins like $85-$90 (23%) reflect trader hedging against volatility ahead of key March OPEC+ deliberations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$90+ 57%
$85–$90 23%
$80–$85 10.7%
$75–$80 5.6%
$690,843 Объем
$690,843 Объем
<$60
1%
$60–$65
1%
$65–$70
2%
$70-$75
3%
$75–$80
6%
$80–$85
11%
$85–$90
23%
$90+
57%
$90+ 57%
$85–$90 23%
$80–$85 10.7%
$75–$80 5.6%
$690,843 Объем
$690,843 Объем
<$60
1%
$60–$65
1%
$65–$70
2%
$70-$75
3%
$75–$80
6%
$80–$85
11%
$85–$90
23%
$90+
57%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Открытие рынка: Mar 3, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 53.5% implied probability to WTI crude (CL) settling at $90+ in March, propelled by escalating Middle East tensions—including Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and fears of broader conflict—tightening global supply amid OPEC+ voluntary cuts extended into Q2. Supporting this bullish skew, recent EIA data revealed a surprise 1.4 million barrel inventory draw last week, while China's stimulus measures signal rebounding demand. A softer USD and Fed rate cut expectations further bolster commodity appeal, though high US shale output and recession risks cap upside. Lower bins like $85-$90 (23%) reflect trader hedging against volatility ahead of key March OPEC+ deliberations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы