Trader consensus heavily favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 96.9% implied probability, driven by the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026, ruling invalidating high International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs, which dropped China's effective rate from over 30% to around 10% via a Section 122 baseline implemented February 24. Subsequent executive orders ended certain duties, with no new impositions despite mid-March Section 301 investigations into forced labor and excess capacity. Stable trade policy and suspensions until November stabilize positioning absent late-breaking developments. Potential challengers include an abrupt executive order hiking rates or rapid USTR actions before March 31 resolution based on prevailing effective rates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено10
5–15% 96.6%
15–25% 2.4%
<5% <1%
25–35% <1%
$674,488 Объем
$674,488 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
1%
5–15%
97%
15–25%
2%
25–35%
<1%
35%+
<1%
5–15% 96.6%
15–25% 2.4%
<5% <1%
25–35% <1%
$674,488 Объем
$674,488 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
$70,547 Объем
1%
5–15%
$72,438 Объем
97%
15–25%
$284,774 Объем
2%
25–35%
$135,233 Объем
<1%
35%+
$111,495 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 96.9% implied probability, driven by the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026, ruling invalidating high International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs, which dropped China's effective rate from over 30% to around 10% via a Section 122 baseline implemented February 24. Subsequent executive orders ended certain duties, with no new impositions despite mid-March Section 301 investigations into forced labor and excess capacity. Stable trade policy and suspensions until November stabilize positioning absent late-breaking developments. Potential challengers include an abrupt executive order hiking rates or rapid USTR actions before March 31 resolution based on prevailing effective rates.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Объем
$674,488Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 96.9% implied probability, driven by the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026, ruling invalidating high International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs, which dropped China's effective rate from over 30% to around 10% via a Section 122 baseline implemented February 24. Subsequent executive orders ended certain duties, with no new impositions despite mid-March Section 301 investigations into forced labor and excess capacity. Stable trade policy and suspensions until November stabilize positioning absent late-breaking developments. Potential challengers include an abrupt executive order hiking rates or rapid USTR actions before March 31 resolution based on prevailing effective rates.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Объем
$674,488Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 96.9% implied probability, driven by the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026, ruling invalidating high International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs, which dropped China's effective rate from over 30% to around 10% via a Section 122 baseline implemented February 24. Subsequent executive orders ended certain duties, with no new impositions despite mid-March Section 301 investigations into forced labor and excess capacity. Stable trade policy and suspensions until November stabilize positioning absent late-breaking developments. Potential challengers include an abrupt executive order hiking rates or rapid USTR actions before March 31 resolution based on prevailing effective rates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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