Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 96.5% for March 31, aligning with the current average effective rate of around 10% on Chinese imports, as reported in recent Yale Budget Lab and Wharton analyses following Supreme Court restrictions on expansive tariff authorities and executive pauses on planned hikes. Over the past 30 days, no new presidential executive orders, USTR announcements, or Section 301 expansions have altered rates, despite China's recent trade probes and warnings amid bilateral tensions ahead of a potential May Trump visit. Stability persists after earlier 2025 deals reducing select tariffs to 10%, with traders dismissing higher brackets due to legal barriers and negotiation signals. A late-breaking reciprocal tariff escalation could challenge this, but skin-in-the-game bets reflect low odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено10
5–15% 96.4%
15–25% 2.3%
<5% <1%
25–35% <1%
$1,150,796 Объем
$1,150,796 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
1%
5–15%
96%
15–25%
2%
25–35%
<1%
35%+
<1%
5–15% 96.4%
15–25% 2.3%
<5% <1%
25–35% <1%
$1,150,796 Объем
$1,150,796 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
$85,970 Объем
1%
5–15%
$262,881 Объем
96%
15–25%
$537,012 Объем
2%
25–35%
$145,964 Объем
<1%
35%+
$121,188 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 96.5% for March 31, aligning with the current average effective rate of around 10% on Chinese imports, as reported in recent Yale Budget Lab and Wharton analyses following Supreme Court restrictions on expansive tariff authorities and executive pauses on planned hikes. Over the past 30 days, no new presidential executive orders, USTR announcements, or Section 301 expansions have altered rates, despite China's recent trade probes and warnings amid bilateral tensions ahead of a potential May Trump visit. Stability persists after earlier 2025 deals reducing select tariffs to 10%, with traders dismissing higher brackets due to legal barriers and negotiation signals. A late-breaking reciprocal tariff escalation could challenge this, but skin-in-the-game bets reflect low odds.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Объем
$1,150,796Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 96.5% for March 31, aligning with the current average effective rate of around 10% on Chinese imports, as reported in recent Yale Budget Lab and Wharton analyses following Supreme Court restrictions on expansive tariff authorities and executive pauses on planned hikes. Over the past 30 days, no new presidential executive orders, USTR announcements, or Section 301 expansions have altered rates, despite China's recent trade probes and warnings amid bilateral tensions ahead of a potential May Trump visit. Stability persists after earlier 2025 deals reducing select tariffs to 10%, with traders dismissing higher brackets due to legal barriers and negotiation signals. A late-breaking reciprocal tariff escalation could challenge this, but skin-in-the-game bets reflect low odds.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Объем
$1,150,796Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 96.5% for March 31, aligning with the current average effective rate of around 10% on Chinese imports, as reported in recent Yale Budget Lab and Wharton analyses following Supreme Court restrictions on expansive tariff authorities and executive pauses on planned hikes. Over the past 30 days, no new presidential executive orders, USTR announcements, or Section 301 expansions have altered rates, despite China's recent trade probes and warnings amid bilateral tensions ahead of a potential May Trump visit. Stability persists after earlier 2025 deals reducing select tariffs to 10%, with traders dismissing higher brackets due to legal barriers and negotiation signals. A late-breaking reciprocal tariff escalation could challenge this, but skin-in-the-game bets reflect low odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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