Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a U.S. tariff rate on China in the 5–15% range on March 31, driven by the effective rate stabilizing around 10% after the Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA-based tariffs on February 24, 2026, prompting replacement with a temporary Section 122 global 10% ad valorem duty on most imports, including from China, through late July. Recent USTR and Treasury talks in Paris with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on March 15–16 underscore trade truce extensions amid Trump-Xi summit preparations, sidelining escalation amid Iran tensions. No executive orders or announcements altered rates in the past 30 days. A commanding 96.7% implied probability reflects this stasis, though an overnight presidential proclamation reinstating reciprocal hikes or new Section 301 adjustments could challenge it.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено10
5–15% 97.0%
15–25% 2.3%
25–35% <1%
<5% <1%
$1,153,057 Объем
$1,153,057 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
<1%
5–15%
97%
15–25%
2%
25–35%
<1%
35%+
<1%
5–15% 97.0%
15–25% 2.3%
25–35% <1%
<5% <1%
$1,153,057 Объем
$1,153,057 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
$85,975 Объем
<1%
5–15%
$262,917 Объем
97%
15–25%
$537,012 Объем
2%
25–35%
$145,964 Объем
<1%
35%+
$121,188 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a U.S. tariff rate on China in the 5–15% range on March 31, driven by the effective rate stabilizing around 10% after the Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA-based tariffs on February 24, 2026, prompting replacement with a temporary Section 122 global 10% ad valorem duty on most imports, including from China, through late July. Recent USTR and Treasury talks in Paris with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on March 15–16 underscore trade truce extensions amid Trump-Xi summit preparations, sidelining escalation amid Iran tensions. No executive orders or announcements altered rates in the past 30 days. A commanding 96.7% implied probability reflects this stasis, though an overnight presidential proclamation reinstating reciprocal hikes or new Section 301 adjustments could challenge it.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Объем
$1,153,057Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a U.S. tariff rate on China in the 5–15% range on March 31, driven by the effective rate stabilizing around 10% after the Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA-based tariffs on February 24, 2026, prompting replacement with a temporary Section 122 global 10% ad valorem duty on most imports, including from China, through late July. Recent USTR and Treasury talks in Paris with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on March 15–16 underscore trade truce extensions amid Trump-Xi summit preparations, sidelining escalation amid Iran tensions. No executive orders or announcements altered rates in the past 30 days. A commanding 96.7% implied probability reflects this stasis, though an overnight presidential proclamation reinstating reciprocal hikes or new Section 301 adjustments could challenge it.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Объем
$1,153,057Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a U.S. tariff rate on China in the 5–15% range on March 31, driven by the effective rate stabilizing around 10% after the Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA-based tariffs on February 24, 2026, prompting replacement with a temporary Section 122 global 10% ad valorem duty on most imports, including from China, through late July. Recent USTR and Treasury talks in Paris with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on March 15–16 underscore trade truce extensions amid Trump-Xi summit preparations, sidelining escalation amid Iran tensions. No executive orders or announcements altered rates in the past 30 days. A commanding 96.7% implied probability reflects this stasis, though an overnight presidential proclamation reinstating reciprocal hikes or new Section 301 adjustments could challenge it.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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