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Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?

Market icon

Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?

мар. 31

апр. 1

мар. 31

апр. 1

<1% вероятность
Polymarket

$852 Объем

<1% вероятность
Polymarket

$852 Объем

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".FlightAware data for March 31, 2026, records just 246 total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States—well below the 500 threshold—driving trader consensus to 95% on "No" as the aviation system stabilizes post-mid-March winter storms that spiked disruptions to over 4,800 daily cancellations around March 16. Ongoing TSA staffing shortages from the partial government shutdown (now day 45, with 366 resignations) have fueled thousands of delays nationwide, including 2,800+ that day, but not mass cancellations. Localized factors like FAA-imposed arrival limits at San Francisco (SFO) due to runway repaving and wind impacts at New York-area airports contributed to delays at hubs such as LaGuardia (85 cancellations) and Chicago O'Hare (11), yet the national total remains low. Barring rare pre-noon data revisions on April 1, resolution appears certain for "No."

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$852
Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Источник определения исхода

https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".FlightAware data for March 31, 2026, records just 246 total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States—well below the 500 threshold—driving trader consensus to 95% on "No" as the aviation system stabilizes post-mid-March winter storms that spiked disruptions to over 4,800 daily cancellations around March 16. Ongoing TSA staffing shortages from the partial government shutdown (now day 45, with 366 resignations) have fueled thousands of delays nationwide, including 2,800+ that day, but not mass cancellations. Localized factors like FAA-imposed arrival limits at San Francisco (SFO) due to runway repaving and wind impacts at New York-area airports contributed to delays at hubs such as LaGuardia (85 cancellations) and Chicago O'Hare (11), yet the national total remains low. Barring rare pre-noon data revisions on April 1, resolution appears certain for "No."

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$852
Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Источник определения исхода

https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции «Да» или «Нет» в зависимости от того, верят ли они, что это событие произойдёт. Текущая вероятность по мнению сообщества составляет 1% для «Yes». Например, если «Да» торгуется по 1¢, рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность наступления события в 1%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются по мере реакции трейдеров на новые события и информацию. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Mar 27, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?», просто выбери, считаешь ли ты, что ответ — «Да» или «Нет». Каждая сторона имеет текущую цену, отражающую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты купишь акции «Да» и исход разрешится как «Да», каждая акция принесёт $1. Если исход — «Нет», твои акции «Да» принесут $0. Ты также можешь продать свои акции в любой момент до разрешения, чтобы зафиксировать прибыль или ограничить убыток.

Текущая вероятность для «Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?» составляет 1% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 1%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

Правила разрешения «Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.