Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward $4,600-$5,000 (19.5% implied probability) over $4,200-$4,600 (18.4%), driven by expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts weakening the USD and real yields, fueling gold's safe-haven appeal amid geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases. Recent softer U.S. jobs data and persistent inflation have amplified upside bets, pushing spot gold above $2,650/oz, but the tight race underscores risks from upcoming June 12 FOMC meeting and CPI release—cool data could propel toward $5,000+, while hotter prints favor sub-$4,600 settlement for the June GC contract. Historical rallies during easing cycles support the bullish skew, though overbought signals cap extreme upside.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоНа что будет рассчитываться Gold (GC) в июне?
На что будет рассчитываться Gold (GC) в июне?
$4,600-$5,000 20%
$4 200–$4 600 18.4%
$5,000–$5,400 14.4%
$3,800–$4,200 12.7%
$429,314 Объем
$429,314 Объем
< $3,800
9%
$3,800–$4,200
13%
$4 200–$4 600
18%
$4,600-$5,000
20%
$5,000–$5,400
14%
$5,400–$5,800
10%
$5,800-$6,200
9%
>$6 200
8%
$4,600-$5,000 20%
$4 200–$4 600 18.4%
$5,000–$5,400 14.4%
$3,800–$4,200 12.7%
$429,314 Объем
$429,314 Объем
< $3,800
9%
$3,800–$4,200
13%
$4 200–$4 600
18%
$4,600-$5,000
20%
$5,000–$5,400
14%
$5,400–$5,800
10%
$5,800-$6,200
9%
>$6 200
8%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Открытие рынка: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward $4,600-$5,000 (19.5% implied probability) over $4,200-$4,600 (18.4%), driven by expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts weakening the USD and real yields, fueling gold's safe-haven appeal amid geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases. Recent softer U.S. jobs data and persistent inflation have amplified upside bets, pushing spot gold above $2,650/oz, but the tight race underscores risks from upcoming June 12 FOMC meeting and CPI release—cool data could propel toward $5,000+, while hotter prints favor sub-$4,600 settlement for the June GC contract. Historical rallies during easing cycles support the bullish skew, though overbought signals cap extreme upside.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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