Polymarket traders assign a 74% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady 3.50%-3.75% policy stance reaffirmed in its March 17-18 decision amid stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a resilient yet softening labor market, with unemployment ticking up to 4.4% and February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000. Chair Powell's March 18 press conference described rates as borderline restrictive, aligning with the dot plot's projection for just one cut sometime in 2026, tempering aggressive easing bets while keeping hikes below 10% on persistent inflation risks. Upcoming April CPI on April 10 and nonfarm payrolls could shift trader consensus ahead of the April 28-29 meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоNo change 74%
25 bps decrease 16%
25 bps increase 8.4%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$2,085,408 Объем
$2,085,408 Объем
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
16%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
8%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 74%
25 bps decrease 16%
25 bps increase 8.4%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$2,085,408 Объем
$2,085,408 Объем
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$41,086 Объем
2%
25 bps decrease
$25,322 Объем
16%
No change
$35,393 Объем
74%
25 bps increase
$1,938,298 Объем
8%
50+ bps increase
$45,310 Объем
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 74% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady 3.50%-3.75% policy stance reaffirmed in its March 17-18 decision amid stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a resilient yet softening labor market, with unemployment ticking up to 4.4% and February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000. Chair Powell's March 18 press conference described rates as borderline restrictive, aligning with the dot plot's projection for just one cut sometime in 2026, tempering aggressive easing bets while keeping hikes below 10% on persistent inflation risks. Upcoming April CPI on April 10 and nonfarm payrolls could shift trader consensus ahead of the April 28-29 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Объем
$2,085,408Дата окончания
Jul 29, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 74% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady 3.50%-3.75% policy stance reaffirmed in its March 17-18 decision amid stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a resilient yet softening labor market, with unemployment ticking up to 4.4% and February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000. Chair Powell's March 18 press conference described rates as borderline restrictive, aligning with the dot plot's projection for just one cut sometime in 2026, tempering aggressive easing bets while keeping hikes below 10% on persistent inflation risks. Upcoming April CPI on April 10 and nonfarm payrolls could shift trader consensus ahead of the April 28-29 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$2,085,408Дата окончания
Jul 29, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a 74% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady 3.50%-3.75% policy stance reaffirmed in its March 17-18 decision amid stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a resilient yet softening labor market, with unemployment ticking up to 4.4% and February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000. Chair Powell's March 18 press conference described rates as borderline restrictive, aligning with the dot plot's projection for just one cut sometime in 2026, tempering aggressive easing bets while keeping hikes below 10% on persistent inflation risks. Upcoming April CPI on April 10 and nonfarm payrolls could shift trader consensus ahead of the April 28-29 meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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