Market icon

Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?

Market icon

Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?

$369,833 Vol.

30 jul 2026
Polymarket

$369,833 Vol.

Polymarket

Hong Wang

$48,595 Vol.

74%

Jacob Tsimerman

$44,752 Vol.

56%

Yu Deng

$99,058 Vol.

51%

Jack Thorne

$94,130 Vol.

48%

Sam Raskin

$27 Vol.

39%

John Pardon

$78,800 Vol.

33%

Julian Sahasrabudhe

$0 Vol.

38%

Alexander Efimov

$519 Vol.

14%

Aleksandr Logunov

$159 Vol.

16%

Will Sawin

$3,793 Vol.

16%

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Hong Wang has emerged as the math community's consensus frontrunner for the 2026 Fields Medal following her groundbreaking 2025 proof of the three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture—a century-old problem in geometric measure theory that experts hail as once-in-a-generation. Recent March 2026 profiles spotlighted her alongside top contenders under 40, including Jacob Tsimerman (Andre-Oort conjecture), Jack Thorne (arithmetic Langlands advances), Yu Deng (dispersive equations), and others like Javier Fresán, fueling trader sentiment on Polymarket where real capital backs the hierarchy. The secretive International Mathematical Union committee selects 2-4 winners, with announcement at the ICM in Philadelphia, July 23-30—marking the key catalyst amid potential late momentum shifts from precursor buzz or overlooked work.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$369,833
Data de Término
30 jul 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Hong Wang has emerged as the math community's consensus frontrunner for the 2026 Fields Medal following her groundbreaking 2025 proof of the three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture—a century-old problem in geometric measure theory that experts hail as once-in-a-generation. Recent March 2026 profiles spotlighted her alongside top contenders under 40, including Jacob Tsimerman (Andre-Oort conjecture), Jack Thorne (arithmetic Langlands advances), Yu Deng (dispersive equations), and others like Javier Fresán, fueling trader sentiment on Polymarket where real capital backs the hierarchy. The secretive International Mathematical Union committee selects 2-4 winners, with announcement at the ICM in Philadelphia, July 23-30—marking the key catalyst amid potential late momentum shifts from precursor buzz or overlooked work.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$369,833
Data de Término
30 jul 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Hong Wang" at 74%, followed by "Jacob Tsimerman" at 56%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?" has generated $369.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?" is "Hong Wang" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jacob Tsimerman" at 56%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quem ganhará a Medalha Fields de 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.