Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's position leads trader consensus at 52% implied probability due to a cascade of recent scandals at the Department of Labor, including multiple top aides resigning or being forced out amid an inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, a security staffer quitting over affair claims, and her husband being barred from headquarters. These developments, peaking in late March 2026, signal deepening departmental turmoil amid budget cuts and staff exodus, echoing the March 5 firing of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem as the first Senate-confirmed cabinet departure. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 11% on vague rumors of policy frictions, while "None before 2027" holds steady at 11% despite high turnover precedent in Trump's administrations. Upcoming congressional oversight could accelerate shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoLori Chavez-DeRemer 47%
Marco Rubio 19.0%
Nenhum antes de 2027 10.6%
Tulsi Gabbard 9.7%
$2,551,349 Vol.
$2,551,349 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
51%
Marco Rubio
11%
Nenhum antes de 2027
11%
Tulsi Gabbard
10%
Pete Hegseth
7%
Howard Lutnick
4%
Kelly Loeffler
4%
Pam Bondi
3%
Susie Wiles
2%
J.D. Vance
2%
Brooke Rollins
2%
Doug Burgum
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Jamieson Greer
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Chris Wright
1%
Lee Zeldin
1%
Scott Bessent
<1%
Sean Duffy
<1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
<1%
John Ratcliffe
<1%
Mike Waltz
<1%
Linda McMahon
<1%
Russell T. Vought
6%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 47%
Marco Rubio 19.0%
Nenhum antes de 2027 10.6%
Tulsi Gabbard 9.7%
$2,551,349 Vol.
$2,551,349 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$78,599 Vol.
51%
Marco Rubio
$52,021 Vol.
11%
Nenhum antes de 2027
$760,882 Vol.
11%
Tulsi Gabbard
$727,907 Vol.
10%
Pete Hegseth
$677,298 Vol.
7%
Howard Lutnick
$26,625 Vol.
4%
Kelly Loeffler
$4,968 Vol.
4%
Pam Bondi
$5,050 Vol.
3%
Susie Wiles
$5,255 Vol.
2%
J.D. Vance
$7,590 Vol.
2%
Brooke Rollins
$7,143 Vol.
2%
Doug Burgum
$6,438 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$5,835 Vol.
1%
Jamieson Greer
$5,220 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$3,696 Vol.
1%
Chris Wright
$4,252 Vol.
1%
Lee Zeldin
$71,754 Vol.
1%
Scott Bessent
$4,746 Vol.
<1%
Sean Duffy
$67,687 Vol.
<1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$3,939 Vol.
<1%
John Ratcliffe
$4,520 Vol.
<1%
Mike Waltz
$4,978 Vol.
<1%
Linda McMahon
$10,427 Vol.
<1%
Russell T. Vought
$4,519 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's position leads trader consensus at 52% implied probability due to a cascade of recent scandals at the Department of Labor, including multiple top aides resigning or being forced out amid an inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, a security staffer quitting over affair claims, and her husband being barred from headquarters. These developments, peaking in late March 2026, signal deepening departmental turmoil amid budget cuts and staff exodus, echoing the March 5 firing of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem as the first Senate-confirmed cabinet departure. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 11% on vague rumors of policy frictions, while "None before 2027" holds steady at 11% despite high turnover precedent in Trump's administrations. Upcoming congressional oversight could accelerate shifts.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
Volume
$2,551,349Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's position leads trader consensus at 52% implied probability due to a cascade of recent scandals at the Department of Labor, including multiple top aides resigning or being forced out amid an inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, a security staffer quitting over affair claims, and her husband being barred from headquarters. These developments, peaking in late March 2026, signal deepening departmental turmoil amid budget cuts and staff exodus, echoing the March 5 firing of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem as the first Senate-confirmed cabinet departure. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 11% on vague rumors of policy frictions, while "None before 2027" holds steady at 11% despite high turnover precedent in Trump's administrations. Upcoming congressional oversight could accelerate shifts.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$2,551,349Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's position leads trader consensus at 52% implied probability due to a cascade of recent scandals at the Department of Labor, including multiple top aides resigning or being forced out amid an inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, a security staffer quitting over affair claims, and her husband being barred from headquarters. These developments, peaking in late March 2026, signal deepening departmental turmoil amid budget cuts and staff exodus, echoing the March 5 firing of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem as the first Senate-confirmed cabinet departure. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 11% on vague rumors of policy frictions, while "None before 2027" holds steady at 11% despite high turnover precedent in Trump's administrations. Upcoming congressional oversight could accelerate shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions