Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors JD Vance at around 25% implied probability to announce a presidential bid before 2027, boosted by his selection as Trump's 2024 running mate and rising national profile amid the GOP's post-election positioning. Democrats trail with Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer each under 10%, reflecting intraparty debates after Kamala Harris's narrow defeat, though no firm declarations have emerged. Michelle Obama remains a longshot despite persistent speculation she has firmly ruled out a run. Key drivers include November 2024 election outcomes clarifying party frontrunners and 2025-2026 gubernatorial races that could elevate figures like Glenn Youngkin or Josh Shapiro, with odds poised for volatility on early exploratory moves.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQuem anunciará a candidatura presidencial antes de 2027?
Quem anunciará a candidatura presidencial antes de 2027?
$139,153 Vol.

Candace Owens
20%

J.B. Pritzker
25%

Mark Kelly
21%

Rand Paul
17%

J.D. Vance
17%

Brian Kemp
17%

Gavin Newsom
16%

Pete Buttigieg
16%

Kamala Harris
15%

Ted Cruz
15%

Tucker Carlson
14%

Nikki Haley
14%

Donald Trump
14%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
14%

Ron DeSantis
14%

Mark Cuban
14%

Jared Polis
13%

John Fetterman
13%

Elise Stefanik
13%

Gina Raimondo
12%

Steve Bannon
12%

Wes Moore
12%

Sarah Huckabee Sanders
12%

Andrew Yang
11%

Phil Murphy
11%

John Thune
11%

Jon Ossoff
11%

Rahm Emanuel
11%

Vivek Ramaswamy
11%

Katie Britt
10%

Marco Rubio
10%

Marjorie Taylor Greene
10%

Cory Booker
10%

Donald Trump Jr.
9%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
9%

Beto O’Rourke
9%

Mike Pence
9%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
9%

Tulsi Gabbard
9%

Glenn Youngkin
8%

Liz Cheney
8%

Jon Stewart
8%

George Clooney
8%

Oprah Winfrey
8%

Kristi Noem
8%

Greg Abbott
8%

Andy Beshear
8%

Kim Kardashian
8%

Josh Hawley
7%

Hillary Clinton
7%

Chelsea Clinton
7%

Tom Brady
7%

Bernie Sanders
7%

Stephen A. Smith
7%

Raphael Warnock
7%

Roy Cooper
7%

Josh Shapiro
7%

Byron Donalds
7%

Matt Gaetz
6%

Tim Walz
6%

Erika Kirk
6%

Elon Musk
6%

Hunter Biden
5%

Ivanka Trump
5%

Barack Obama
4%

Michelle Obama
4%

Zohran Mamdani
4%

MrBeast
3%

LeBron James
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
52%
$139,153 Vol.

Candace Owens
20%

J.B. Pritzker
25%

Mark Kelly
21%

Rand Paul
17%

J.D. Vance
17%

Brian Kemp
17%

Gavin Newsom
16%

Pete Buttigieg
16%

Kamala Harris
15%

Ted Cruz
15%

Tucker Carlson
14%

Nikki Haley
14%

Donald Trump
14%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
14%

Ron DeSantis
14%

Mark Cuban
14%

Jared Polis
13%

John Fetterman
13%

Elise Stefanik
13%

Gina Raimondo
12%

Steve Bannon
12%

Wes Moore
12%

Sarah Huckabee Sanders
12%

Andrew Yang
11%

Phil Murphy
11%

John Thune
11%

Jon Ossoff
11%

Rahm Emanuel
11%

Vivek Ramaswamy
11%

Katie Britt
10%

Marco Rubio
10%

Marjorie Taylor Greene
10%

Cory Booker
10%

Donald Trump Jr.
9%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
9%

Beto O’Rourke
9%

Mike Pence
9%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
9%

Tulsi Gabbard
9%

Glenn Youngkin
8%

Liz Cheney
8%

Jon Stewart
8%

George Clooney
8%

Oprah Winfrey
8%

Kristi Noem
8%

Greg Abbott
8%

Andy Beshear
8%

Kim Kardashian
8%

Josh Hawley
7%

Hillary Clinton
7%

Chelsea Clinton
7%

Tom Brady
7%

Bernie Sanders
7%

Stephen A. Smith
7%

Raphael Warnock
7%

Roy Cooper
7%

Josh Shapiro
7%

Byron Donalds
7%

Matt Gaetz
6%

Tim Walz
6%

Erika Kirk
6%

Elon Musk
6%

Hunter Biden
5%

Ivanka Trump
5%

Barack Obama
4%

Michelle Obama
4%

Zohran Mamdani
4%

MrBeast
3%

LeBron James
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
52%
An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 19, 2025, 6:49 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors JD Vance at around 25% implied probability to announce a presidential bid before 2027, boosted by his selection as Trump's 2024 running mate and rising national profile amid the GOP's post-election positioning. Democrats trail with Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer each under 10%, reflecting intraparty debates after Kamala Harris's narrow defeat, though no firm declarations have emerged. Michelle Obama remains a longshot despite persistent speculation she has firmly ruled out a run. Key drivers include November 2024 election outcomes clarifying party frontrunners and 2025-2026 gubernatorial races that could elevate figures like Glenn Youngkin or Josh Shapiro, with odds poised for volatility on early exploratory moves.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions