Market icon
Eleições·Primária Da Pensilvânia

Vencedor da primária democrata do PA-10

Market icon
Eleições·Primária Da Pensilvânia

Vencedor da primária democrata do PA-10

Janelle Stelson 89%

Justin Douglas 8%

Jason Cass 2.6%

Michael Robinson <1%

Polymarket

$12,697 Vol.

Janelle Stelson 89%

Justin Douglas 8%

Jason Cass 2.6%

Michael Robinson <1%

Polymarket

$12,697 Vol.

Janelle Stelson

$2,778 Vol.

89%

Justin Douglas

$586 Vol.

8%

Jason Cass

$8,045 Vol.

3%

Michael Robinson

$589 Vol.

1%

William Lillich

$699 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Janelle Stelson commands 88.5% implied probability as the trader consensus frontrunner in the PA-10 Democratic primary on May 19, propelled by her near-victory over incumbent Rep. Scott Perry in 2024—falling short by just 1.2 points—which built substantial name recognition and voter familiarity. Her inclusion in the DCCC's "Red to Blue" program on February 23 provided national party backing, complemented by superior fundraising with over $2 million raised and $1.5 million cash on hand as of late 2025. Challenger Justin Douglas holds 7.5% with his Dauphin County commissioner profile and February endorsement from William Lillich, but trails in resources amid a fragmented field of underfunded candidates like Jason Cass and Michael Robinson. Recent campaign momentum from Stelson's anti-corruption agenda rollout underscores her edge in this low-turnout contest.

Janelle Stelson commands 88.5% implied probability as the trader consensus frontrunner in the PA-10 Democratic primary on May 19, propelled by her near-victory over incumbent Rep. Scott Perry in 2024—falling short by just 1.2 points—which built substantial name recognition and voter familiarity. Her inclusion in the DCCC's "Red to Blue" program on February 23 provided national party backing, complemented by superior fundraising with over $2 million raised and $1.5 million cash on hand as of late 2025. Challenger Justin Douglas holds 7.5% with his Dauphin County commissioner profile and February endorsement from William Lillich, but trails in resources amid a fragmented field of underfunded candidates like Jason Cass and Michael Robinson. Recent campaign momentum from Stelson's anti-corruption agenda rollout underscores her edge in this low-turnout contest.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Janelle Stelson commands 88.5% implied probability as the trader consensus frontrunner in the PA-10 Democratic primary on May 19, propelled by her near-victory over incumbent Rep. Scott Perry in 2024—falling short by just 1.2 points—which built substantial name recognition and voter familiarity. Her inclusion in the DCCC's "Red to Blue" program on February 23 provided national party backing, complemented by superior fundraising with over $2 million raised and $1.5 million cash on hand as of late 2025. Challenger Justin Douglas holds 7.5% with his Dauphin County commissioner profile and February endorsement from William Lillich, but trails in resources amid a fragmented field of underfunded candidates like Jason Cass and Michael Robinson. Recent campaign momentum from Stelson's anti-corruption agenda rollout underscores her edge in this low-turnout contest.

Janelle Stelson commands 88.5% implied probability as the trader consensus frontrunner in the PA-10 Democratic primary on May 19, propelled by her near-victory over incumbent Rep. Scott Perry in 2024—falling short by just 1.2 points—which built substantial name recognition and voter familiarity. Her inclusion in the DCCC's "Red to Blue" program on February 23 provided national party backing, complemented by superior fundraising with over $2 million raised and $1.5 million cash on hand as of late 2025. Challenger Justin Douglas holds 7.5% with his Dauphin County commissioner profile and February endorsement from William Lillich, but trails in resources amid a fragmented field of underfunded candidates like Jason Cass and Michael Robinson. Recent campaign momentum from Stelson's anti-corruption agenda rollout underscores her edge in this low-turnout contest.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da primária democrata do PA-10" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Janelle Stelson" at 89%, followed by "Justin Douglas" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 89¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da primária democrata do PA-10" has generated $12.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da primária democrata do PA-10," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da primária democrata do PA-10" is "Janelle Stelson" at 89%, meaning the market assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Justin Douglas" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da primária democrata do PA-10" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.