OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana

Name: OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana
Start: 2026-01-21T15:19:47.302Z
End: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z

Política·GELO

OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana

Derek Merrin 40%

Alea Nadeem 24.0%

Wayne Kinsel 20.0%

Josh Williams 18.4%

NEW

May 5, 2026

Derek Merrin

$0 Vol.

38%

Alea Nadeem

$0 Vol.

15%

Wayne Kinsel

$0 Vol.

20%

Josh Williams

$0 Vol.

21%

Jacob Frost

$0 Vol.

16%

Madison Sheahan

$0 Vol.

19%

Anthony Campbell

$0 Vol.

Derek Merrin 40%

Alea Nadeem 24.0%

Wayne Kinsel 20.0%

Josh Williams 18.4%

NEW

May 5, 2026

Derek Merrin

$0 Vol.

38%

Alea Nadeem

$0 Vol.

15%

Wayne Kinsel

$0 Vol.

20%

Josh Williams

$0 Vol.

21%

Jacob Frost

$0 Vol.

16%

Madison Sheahan

$0 Vol.

19%

Anthony Campbell

$0 Vol.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Trader consensus positions Derek Merrin as the frontrunner at 37% implied probability for the Ohio 9th Republican primary, propelled by his double-digit lead in the latest Buckeye Battleground Poll, top fundraising totals exceeding $500,000, and endorsements from Ohio House GOP leadership including Speaker Jason Stephens. State Rep. Merrin's incumbency advantage and district familiarity solidify his edge over challengers like Josh Williams (21%), whose strong conservative voting record and veteran background appeal to the base, and Madison Sheahan (19.5%), buoyed by recent grassroots momentum and social media traction. A key recent catalyst: Merrin's fresh backing from the Ohio Republican Party executive committee, shifting odds amid tightening fields for Wayne Kinsel and others ahead of the March 19 ballot.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado Mar 22, 2026, 2:07 AM UTC

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Derek Merrin" at 38%, followed by "Josh Williams" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 21, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" is "Derek Merrin" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Josh Williams" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 38¢ for "Derek Merrin" in the "OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 38% chance that "Derek Merrin" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 38¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 62¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" market is scheduled to resolve on or around May 5, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" market has a growing discussion of 2 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana

OH-09 Vencedor da primária republicana

Regras

Contexto de Mercado

Contexto de Mercado

Comentários (2)

Top Holders

Cargos

Actividade

Frequently Asked Questions

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