Edouard Philippe holds a commanding 99.7% implied probability as Le Havre mayoral election winner, driven by his entrenched dominance as former mayor from 2010-2017, successful handover to ally Jean-Baptiste Gastinne, and strong July 2024 legislative runoff victory in the local constituency exceeding 50% amid France's snap parliamentary vote. With Gastinne signaling no re-election bid for the 2026 municipal contest—featuring a two-round majority system—challengers like National Rally's Charlotte Boulogne and left-wing Jean-Paul Lecoq remain marginal based on historical local results. Traders' near-certainty reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on his path to victory, though late scandals, health issues, or surprise coalitions could theoretically shift dynamics before the March 2026 polls.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição municipal de Le Havre
Vencedor da eleição municipal de Le Havre
Edouard Philippe 99.7%
Charlotte Boulogne <1%
Franck Keller <1%
Jean-Paul Lecoq <1%
$66,415 Vol.
$66,415 Vol.
Mar 22, 2026
Edouard Philippe
100%
Charlotte Boulogne
<1%
Franck Keller
<1%
Jean-Paul Lecoq
<1%
Marie Le Cieux
<1%
Sophie Zarifian
<1%
Magali Cauchois
<1%
Edouard Philippe 99.7%
Charlotte Boulogne <1%
Franck Keller <1%
Jean-Paul Lecoq <1%
$66,415 Vol.
$66,415 Vol.
Mar 22, 2026
Edouard Philippe
$66,415 Vol.
100%
Charlotte Boulogne
$0 Vol.
<1%
Franck Keller
$0 Vol.
<1%
Jean-Paul Lecoq
$0 Vol.
<1%
Marie Le Cieux
$0 Vol.
<1%
Sophie Zarifian
$0 Vol.
<1%
Magali Cauchois
$0 Vol.
<1%
Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Le Havre are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Le Havre.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Edouard Philippe holds a commanding 99.7% implied probability as Le Havre mayoral election winner, driven by his entrenched dominance as former mayor from 2010-2017, successful handover to ally Jean-Baptiste Gastinne, and strong July 2024 legislative runoff victory in the local constituency exceeding 50% amid France's snap parliamentary vote. With Gastinne signaling no re-election bid for the 2026 municipal contest—featuring a two-round majority system—challengers like National Rally's Charlotte Boulogne and left-wing Jean-Paul Lecoq remain marginal based on historical local results. Traders' near-certainty reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on his path to victory, though late scandals, health issues, or surprise coalitions could theoretically shift dynamics before the March 2026 polls.
Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Le Havre are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Le Havre.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Le Havre.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Mercado Aberto: Mar 3, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
Volume
$66,415Data de Término
Mar 22, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 3, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Le Havre are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Le Havre.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Edouard Philippe holds a commanding 99.7% implied probability as Le Havre mayoral election winner, driven by his entrenched dominance as former mayor from 2010-2017, successful handover to ally Jean-Baptiste Gastinne, and strong July 2024 legislative runoff victory in the local constituency exceeding 50% amid France's snap parliamentary vote. With Gastinne signaling no re-election bid for the 2026 municipal contest—featuring a two-round majority system—challengers like National Rally's Charlotte Boulogne and left-wing Jean-Paul Lecoq remain marginal based on historical local results. Traders' near-certainty reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on his path to victory, though late scandals, health issues, or surprise coalitions could theoretically shift dynamics before the March 2026 polls.
Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Le Havre are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Le Havre.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Le Havre.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$66,415Data de Término
Mar 22, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 3, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Edouard Philippe holds a commanding 99.7% implied probability as Le Havre mayoral election winner, driven by his entrenched dominance as former mayor from 2010-2017, successful handover to ally Jean-Baptiste Gastinne, and strong July 2024 legislative runoff victory in the local constituency exceeding 50% amid France's snap parliamentary vote. With Gastinne signaling no re-election bid for the 2026 municipal contest—featuring a two-round majority system—challengers like National Rally's Charlotte Boulogne and left-wing Jean-Paul Lecoq remain marginal based on historical local results. Traders' near-certainty reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on his path to victory, though late scandals, health issues, or surprise coalitions could theoretically shift dynamics before the March 2026 polls.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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