Recent polls have driven trader consensus toward a Tisza Party popular vote victory margin exceeding 9%, priced at 35.5%, as surveys like Medián's latest show a 23-point lead over Fidesz-KDNP, while IDEA and 21 Research Center polls indicate 12-14% edges among decided voters. This widening gap, up from narrower leads in early March, stems from Péter Magyar's momentum-building rallies—including a March 15 national march drawing half a million supporters—and Fidesz's eroding support amid voter intimidation accusations. With the April 12 parliamentary election under Hungary's mixed-member proportional system nearing, traders price Tisza's 3-9% wins highly at 37%, reflecting polling trends but noting single-member district dynamics and undecided voters as potential swing factors.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTisza 9%+ 36%
Tisza 6-9% 19%
Tisza 3-6% 19%
Tisza 0-3% 8%
$1,172,778 Vol.
$1,172,778 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Tisza 9%+
36%
Tisza 6-9%
19%
Tisza 3-6%
19%
Tisza 0-3%
8%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3%
8%
Fidesz-KDNP 3-6%
6%
Fidesz-KDNP 6-9%
5%
Fidesz-KDNP 9%+
6%
Outro
<1%
Tisza 9%+ 36%
Tisza 6-9% 19%
Tisza 3-6% 19%
Tisza 0-3% 8%
$1,172,778 Vol.
$1,172,778 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Tisza 9%+
$62,724 Vol.
36%
Tisza 6-9%
$14,727 Vol.
19%
Tisza 3-6%
$38,188 Vol.
19%
Tisza 0-3%
$21,952 Vol.
8%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3%
$49,917 Vol.
8%
Fidesz-KDNP 3-6%
$46,679 Vol.
6%
Fidesz-KDNP 6-9%
$436,637 Vol.
5%
Fidesz-KDNP 9%+
$487,041 Vol.
6%
Outro
$14,912 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Recent polls have driven trader consensus toward a Tisza Party popular vote victory margin exceeding 9%, priced at 35.5%, as surveys like Medián's latest show a 23-point lead over Fidesz-KDNP, while IDEA and 21 Research Center polls indicate 12-14% edges among decided voters. This widening gap, up from narrower leads in early March, stems from Péter Magyar's momentum-building rallies—including a March 15 national march drawing half a million supporters—and Fidesz's eroding support amid voter intimidation accusations. With the April 12 parliamentary election under Hungary's mixed-member proportional system nearing, traders price Tisza's 3-9% wins highly at 37%, reflecting polling trends but noting single-member district dynamics and undecided voters as potential swing factors.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Volume
$1,172,778Data de Término
Apr 12, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Recent polls have driven trader consensus toward a Tisza Party popular vote victory margin exceeding 9%, priced at 35.5%, as surveys like Medián's latest show a 23-point lead over Fidesz-KDNP, while IDEA and 21 Research Center polls indicate 12-14% edges among decided voters. This widening gap, up from narrower leads in early March, stems from Péter Magyar's momentum-building rallies—including a March 15 national march drawing half a million supporters—and Fidesz's eroding support amid voter intimidation accusations. With the April 12 parliamentary election under Hungary's mixed-member proportional system nearing, traders price Tisza's 3-9% wins highly at 37%, reflecting polling trends but noting single-member district dynamics and undecided voters as potential swing factors.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Volume
$1,172,778Data de Término
Apr 12, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls have driven trader consensus toward a Tisza Party popular vote victory margin exceeding 9%, priced at 35.5%, as surveys like Medián's latest show a 23-point lead over Fidesz-KDNP, while IDEA and 21 Research Center polls indicate 12-14% edges among decided voters. This widening gap, up from narrower leads in early March, stems from Péter Magyar's momentum-building rallies—including a March 15 national march drawing half a million supporters—and Fidesz's eroding support amid voter intimidation accusations. With the April 12 parliamentary election under Hungary's mixed-member proportional system nearing, traders price Tisza's 3-9% wins highly at 37%, reflecting polling trends but noting single-member district dynamics and undecided voters as potential swing factors.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions