Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty for Seoul's highest temperature on April 2, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 13–16°C as KMA's recent mid-term forecast pegs a 16°C high under mostly cloudy skies, while ECMWF and GFS ensembles lean cooler at 12–14°C. This divergence stems from model disagreements on cloud cover thickness and timing, which will limit solar insolation and peak heating, alongside variable southerly winds influencing advection. Early April climatology averages 14°C highs amid fading La Niña toward ENSO-neutral conditions, but short-range forecast spreads highlight inherent model variability. KMA hourly updates today and observational trends will sharpen resolution odds before tomorrow's measurement at official stations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Seoul on April 2?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 2?
15°C 25%
16°C or higher 21.1%
14°C 18%
13°C 17%
$51,735 Vol.
$51,735 Vol.
2 abr 2026
6°C or below
1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
3%
11°C
9%
12°C
16%
13°C
17%
14°C
18%
15°C
25%
16°C or higher
21%
15°C 25%
16°C or higher 21.1%
14°C 18%
13°C 17%
$51,735 Vol.
$51,735 Vol.
2 abr 2026
6°C or below
$19,717 Vol.
1%
7°C
$3,008 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$3,296 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$4,465 Vol.
1%
10°C
$3,579 Vol.
3%
11°C
$2,793 Vol.
9%
12°C
$2,197 Vol.
16%
13°C
$2,760 Vol.
17%
14°C
$1,784 Vol.
18%
15°C
$2,580 Vol.
25%
16°C or higher
$5,916 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty for Seoul's highest temperature on April 2, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 13–16°C as KMA's recent mid-term forecast pegs a 16°C high under mostly cloudy skies, while ECMWF and GFS ensembles lean cooler at 12–14°C. This divergence stems from model disagreements on cloud cover thickness and timing, which will limit solar insolation and peak heating, alongside variable southerly winds influencing advection. Early April climatology averages 14°C highs amid fading La Niña toward ENSO-neutral conditions, but short-range forecast spreads highlight inherent model variability. KMA hourly updates today and observational trends will sharpen resolution odds before tomorrow's measurement at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ET
Volume
$51,735Data de Término
2 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty for Seoul's highest temperature on April 2, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 13–16°C as KMA's recent mid-term forecast pegs a 16°C high under mostly cloudy skies, while ECMWF and GFS ensembles lean cooler at 12–14°C. This divergence stems from model disagreements on cloud cover thickness and timing, which will limit solar insolation and peak heating, alongside variable southerly winds influencing advection. Early April climatology averages 14°C highs amid fading La Niña toward ENSO-neutral conditions, but short-range forecast spreads highlight inherent model variability. KMA hourly updates today and observational trends will sharpen resolution odds before tomorrow's measurement at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$51,735Data de Término
2 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty for Seoul's highest temperature on April 2, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 13–16°C as KMA's recent mid-term forecast pegs a 16°C high under mostly cloudy skies, while ECMWF and GFS ensembles lean cooler at 12–14°C. This divergence stems from model disagreements on cloud cover thickness and timing, which will limit solar insolation and peak heating, alongside variable southerly winds influencing advection. Early April climatology averages 14°C highs amid fading La Niña toward ENSO-neutral conditions, but short-range forecast spreads highlight inherent model variability. KMA hourly updates today and observational trends will sharpen resolution odds before tomorrow's measurement at official stations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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