Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 47.5% implied probability to an 18°C high in Beijing today, reflecting the tight spread in short-range forecast models: China Meteorological Administration guidance holds at 17°C under cloudy skies with light southerly winds less than 12 km/h, while AccuWeather and ECMWF ensembles project 18-19°C amid mostly sunny mornings transitioning to high clouds. Early morning observations showed temperatures near 5-14°C with fair conditions after overnight cooling, priming modest daytime heating typical of early April climatology (historical highs averaging 18°C). Uncertainty stems from cloud cover variability and solar insolation, with official Beijing observatory data—likely from Capital International Airport—resolving the market by evening; monitor hourly updates for shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on April 1?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 1?
18°C 48%
19°C 31%
17°C 14%
20°C 2.7%
$68,930 Vol.
$68,930 Vol.
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
14%
18°C
48%
19°C
31%
20°C
3%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
<1%
18°C 48%
19°C 31%
17°C 14%
20°C 2.7%
$68,930 Vol.
$68,930 Vol.
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
14%
18°C
48%
19°C
31%
20°C
3%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 29, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 47.5% implied probability to an 18°C high in Beijing today, reflecting the tight spread in short-range forecast models: China Meteorological Administration guidance holds at 17°C under cloudy skies with light southerly winds less than 12 km/h, while AccuWeather and ECMWF ensembles project 18-19°C amid mostly sunny mornings transitioning to high clouds. Early morning observations showed temperatures near 5-14°C with fair conditions after overnight cooling, priming modest daytime heating typical of early April climatology (historical highs averaging 18°C). Uncertainty stems from cloud cover variability and solar insolation, with official Beijing observatory data—likely from Capital International Airport—resolving the market by evening; monitor hourly updates for shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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