Trader consensus on Polymarket prices gold futures (GC) above $2,350 by June 30 at around 55% implied probability for Yes, driven primarily by persistent Fed rate cut expectations amid cooling inflation data. May CPI rose 3.3% YoY, below forecasts, boosting odds of a September cut to 70% per CME FedWatch, which typically lifts non-yielding gold via lower real yields. Spot gold holds near $2,320/oz, supported by dollar weakness (DXY at 104.5) and Middle East tensions, though ETF outflows ($1.2B last week) cap upside. Key catalysts ahead: June 12 CPI and June 11-12 FOMC, where hawkish surprises could trigger pullbacks below key $2,300 support; resolution hinges on close above strike on CME settlement.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoOuro (GC) acima de ___ final de junho?
Ouro (GC) acima de ___ final de junho?
$40,745 Vol.
US$8.000
2%
US$7.000
13%
US$6.500
5%
US$ 6.200
9%
US$ 6.000
10%
US$ 5.800
20%
US$ 5.600
22%
US$ 5.400
29%
US$5.200
40%
US$5.000
38%
US$4.800
45%
$4.600
51%
$40,745 Vol.
US$8.000
2%
US$7.000
13%
US$6.500
5%
US$ 6.200
9%
US$ 6.000
10%
US$ 5.800
20%
US$ 5.600
22%
US$ 5.400
29%
US$5.200
40%
US$5.000
38%
US$4.800
45%
$4.600
51%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices gold futures (GC) above $2,350 by June 30 at around 55% implied probability for Yes, driven primarily by persistent Fed rate cut expectations amid cooling inflation data. May CPI rose 3.3% YoY, below forecasts, boosting odds of a September cut to 70% per CME FedWatch, which typically lifts non-yielding gold via lower real yields. Spot gold holds near $2,320/oz, supported by dollar weakness (DXY at 104.5) and Middle East tensions, though ETF outflows ($1.2B last week) cap upside. Key catalysts ahead: June 12 CPI and June 11-12 FOMC, where hawkish surprises could trigger pullbacks below key $2,300 support; resolution hinges on close above strike on CME settlement.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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