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Eurovisão 2026: Primeira Meia-Final

Market icon

Eurovisão 2026: Primeira Meia-Final

$415,525 Vol.

12 mai 2026
Polymarket

$415,525 Vol.

Polymarket
Market icon

Finlândia

$328,585 Vol.

98%

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Suécia

$1,468 Vol.

95%

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Grécia

$4,030 Vol.

94%

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Israel

$19,555 Vol.

92%

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Moldávia

$1,434 Vol.

84%

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Sérvia

$1,452 Vol.

77%

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Croácia

$3,605 Vol.

76%

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Lituânia

$2,591 Vol.

69%

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Polônia

$7,240 Vol.

54%

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Geórgia

$166 Vol.

50%

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Montenegro

$1,414 Vol.

52%

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Bélgica

$6,233 Vol.

48%

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Portugal

$30,880 Vol.

32%

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Estônia

$1,748 Vol.

24%

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San Marino

$5,122 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.The running order reveal for Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final on April 2 has crystallized trader consensus on qualifiers, positioning Sweden's Felicia ("My System") as a 94% implied frontrunner to advance from slot 2, fueled by the country's back-to-back successes and song's pop appeal. Finland's Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen ("Liekinheitin") and Greece's Akylas ("Ferto") exceed 90% odds, leveraging strong streaming metrics and jury-friendly staging potential, while Israel's Noam Bettan ("Michelle") benefits from diaspora televote strength at 85-89%. With national selections complete, competition intensifies among 15 entrants like Croatia and Moldova; historical Balkan voting blocs and public-jury splits add volatility. First rehearsals kick off May 1, with the May 12 semi determining the top 10 for Vienna's final.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$415,525
Data de Término
12 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 16, 2026, 12:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.The running order reveal for Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final on April 2 has crystallized trader consensus on qualifiers, positioning Sweden's Felicia ("My System") as a 94% implied frontrunner to advance from slot 2, fueled by the country's back-to-back successes and song's pop appeal. Finland's Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen ("Liekinheitin") and Greece's Akylas ("Ferto") exceed 90% odds, leveraging strong streaming metrics and jury-friendly staging potential, while Israel's Noam Bettan ("Michelle") benefits from diaspora televote strength at 85-89%. With national selections complete, competition intensifies among 15 entrants like Croatia and Moldova; historical Balkan voting blocs and public-jury splits add volatility. First rehearsals kick off May 1, with the May 12 semi determining the top 10 for Vienna's final.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$415,525
Data de Término
12 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 16, 2026, 12:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eurovisão 2026: Primeira Meia-Final" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Finlândia" at 98%, followed by "Suécia" at 95%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eurovisão 2026: Primeira Meia-Final" has generated $415.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eurovisão 2026: Primeira Meia-Final," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eurovisão 2026: Primeira Meia-Final" is "Finlândia" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Suécia" at 95%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eurovisão 2026: Primeira Meia-Final" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.