Market icon
Economia·China

Crescimento anual do PIB da China em 2026

Market icon
Economia·China

Crescimento anual do PIB da China em 2026

4,0–5,0% 68%

5,0–6,0% 31.7%

6,0-7,0% 4.6%

3,0–4,0% 2.6%

Polymarket

$206,528 Vol.

4,0–5,0% 68%

5,0–6,0% 31.7%

6,0-7,0% 4.6%

3,0–4,0% 2.6%

Polymarket

$206,528 Vol.

<1,0%

$16,960 Vol.

<1%

1,0–2,0%

$26,485 Vol.

2%

2,0–3,0%

$5,664 Vol.

1%

3,0–4,0%

$6,708 Vol.

3%

4,0–5,0%

$14,103 Vol.

68%

5,0–6,0%

$15,315 Vol.

28%

6,0-7,0%

$18,795 Vol.

5%

7,0–8,0%

$28,430 Vol.

1%

8,0–9,0%

$5,961 Vol.

<1%

9,0%+

$68,106 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders heavily favor 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 67.5% implied probability, closely mirroring the government's official target of 4.5–5% announced during the March Two Sessions—the lowest in decades amid property sector debt overhang and global trade risks. Early 2026 data through February showed a rebound in exports and high-tech investment, supporting firmer footing per March 16 reports, while fiscal stimulus including a 4% budget deficit and mortgage rate cuts aims to bolster consumption. Analyst forecasts from IMF, Vanguard, and UBS converge around 4.5%, though prolonged property weakness and potential U.S. tariffs cap upside, positioning 5.0–6.0% at 27.9% as a secondary bet if reflation accelerates. Q1 GDP data, due mid-April, could refine sentiment.

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.

The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$206,528
Data de Término
31 jan 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders heavily favor 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 67.5% implied probability, closely mirroring the government's official target of 4.5–5% announced during the March Two Sessions—the lowest in decades amid property sector debt overhang and global trade risks. Early 2026 data through February showed a rebound in exports and high-tech investment, supporting firmer footing per March 16 reports, while fiscal stimulus including a 4% budget deficit and mortgage rate cuts aims to bolster consumption. Analyst forecasts from IMF, Vanguard, and UBS converge around 4.5%, though prolonged property weakness and potential U.S. tariffs cap upside, positioning 5.0–6.0% at 27.9% as a secondary bet if reflation accelerates. Q1 GDP data, due mid-April, could refine sentiment.

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.

The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$206,528
Data de Término
31 jan 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Crescimento anual do PIB da China em 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4,0–5,0%" at 68%, followed by "5,0–6,0%" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 68¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Crescimento anual do PIB da China em 2026" has generated $206.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Crescimento anual do PIB da China em 2026," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Crescimento anual do PIB da China em 2026" is "4,0–5,0%" at 68%, meaning the market assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "5,0–6,0%" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Crescimento anual do PIB da China em 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.