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Política·Eleições Primárias

Vencedores da Primária CA-22

Market icon
Política·Eleições Primárias

Vencedores da Primária CA-22

NOVO
2 jun 2026
Polymarket

$705 Vol.

Polymarket

David Valadao

$271 Vol.

96%

Randy Villegas

$169 Vol.

58%

Jasmeet Bains

$0 Vol.

50%

Chris Mathys

$0 Vol.

8%

Rudy Salas

$265 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 22nd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. David Valadao leads trader consensus to advance from California's 22nd Congressional District top-two primary on June 2 at 97% implied probability, driven by his dominant fundraising—$3 million raised through late 2025, far outpacing Democrats Jasmeet Bains ($650,000) and Randy Villegas ($876,000)—and track record holding this Central Valley battleground despite close 2024 margins. The second spot remains closely contested, with Bains and Villegas each around 66-67%, as their intraparty divide persists amid progressive endorsements for Villegas and Bains' centrist appeal on healthcare. Recent catalysts include Villegas' March 19 televised debate challenge and Courage California's March 20 endorsement boosting his momentum, while Valadao's March 25 Agriculture Committee assignment underscores incumbency advantages. Vote consolidation or late polling could tip the balance before ballots drop.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 22nd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$705
Data de Término
2 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 11, 2025, 11:54 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 22nd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 22nd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. David Valadao leads trader consensus to advance from California's 22nd Congressional District top-two primary on June 2 at 97% implied probability, driven by his dominant fundraising—$3 million raised through late 2025, far outpacing Democrats Jasmeet Bains ($650,000) and Randy Villegas ($876,000)—and track record holding this Central Valley battleground despite close 2024 margins. The second spot remains closely contested, with Bains and Villegas each around 66-67%, as their intraparty divide persists amid progressive endorsements for Villegas and Bains' centrist appeal on healthcare. Recent catalysts include Villegas' March 19 televised debate challenge and Courage California's March 20 endorsement boosting his momentum, while Valadao's March 25 Agriculture Committee assignment underscores incumbency advantages. Vote consolidation or late polling could tip the balance before ballots drop.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 22nd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$705
Data de Término
2 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 11, 2025, 11:54 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 22nd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedores da Primária CA-22" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "David Valadao" at 96%, followed by "Randy Villegas" at 58%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vencedores da Primária CA-22" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 11, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vencedores da Primária CA-22," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedores da Primária CA-22" is "David Valadao" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Randy Villegas" at 58%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedores da Primária CA-22" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.