Spain leads trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, retaining the #1 FIFA ranking on March 28 amid a dominant Euro 2024 campaign and a youthful core including Yamal, Pedri, and Morata in peak form. Yet the market stays tightly contested with England (12.8%), France (11.0%), Argentina (9.8%), and Brazil (8.6%) clustered close, reflecting France's gritty 2-1 friendly win over Brazil on March 27—Mbappé and Ekitiké scoring despite a red card—England's Nations League momentum and Bellingham-led depth, Argentina's Copa América experience despite dipping to #3 in rankings, and Brazil's talent pool. The draw shielding top seeds from early clashes until semifinals or finals, plus ongoing European playoffs and pre-tournament tune-ups, amplifies uncertainty in this deep 48-team field.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoEspanha 15.8%
Inglaterra 12.8%
França 11.0%
Argentina 9.8%
$418,381,136 Vol.
$418,381,136 Vol.
Espanha
16%
Inglaterra
13%
França
11%
Argentina
10%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemanha
5%
Holanda
3%
Noruega
3%
Itália
2%
Bélgica
2%
Colômbia
2%
EUA
2%
Marrocos
2%
Japão
1%
Uruguai
1%
México
1%
Croácia
1%
Suíça
1%
Equador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Áustria
1%
Coreia do Sul
<1%
Paraguai
<1%
Costa do Marfim
<1%
Argélia
<1%
Escócia
<1%
Tunísia
<1%
Austrália
<1%
Arábia Saudita
<1%
Egito
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordânia
<1%
Irã
<1%
Gana
<1%
África do Sul
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Catar
<1%
Nova Zelândia
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbequistão
<1%
Espanha 15.8%
Inglaterra 12.8%
França 11.0%
Argentina 9.8%
$418,381,136 Vol.
$418,381,136 Vol.
Espanha
16%
Inglaterra
13%
França
11%
Argentina
10%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemanha
5%
Holanda
3%
Noruega
3%
Itália
2%
Bélgica
2%
Colômbia
2%
EUA
2%
Marrocos
2%
Japão
1%
Uruguai
1%
México
1%
Croácia
1%
Suíça
1%
Equador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Áustria
1%
Coreia do Sul
<1%
Paraguai
<1%
Costa do Marfim
<1%
Argélia
<1%
Escócia
<1%
Tunísia
<1%
Austrália
<1%
Arábia Saudita
<1%
Egito
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordânia
<1%
Irã
<1%
Gana
<1%
África do Sul
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Catar
<1%
Nova Zelândia
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbequistão
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain leads trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, retaining the #1 FIFA ranking on March 28 amid a dominant Euro 2024 campaign and a youthful core including Yamal, Pedri, and Morata in peak form. Yet the market stays tightly contested with England (12.8%), France (11.0%), Argentina (9.8%), and Brazil (8.6%) clustered close, reflecting France's gritty 2-1 friendly win over Brazil on March 27—Mbappé and Ekitiké scoring despite a red card—England's Nations League momentum and Bellingham-led depth, Argentina's Copa América experience despite dipping to #3 in rankings, and Brazil's talent pool. The draw shielding top seeds from early clashes until semifinals or finals, plus ongoing European playoffs and pre-tournament tune-ups, amplifies uncertainty in this deep 48-team field.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions