Spain commands a slim 15.8% implied probability edge as trader consensus favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by their perfect UEFA qualifying campaign, world No. 1 ranking, and top billing in ESPN's March power rankings just 100 days from kickoff. The bunched top tier—including England (12.8%), France (10.9%), and defending champions Argentina (10.0%)—mirrors the parity among recent Euro 2024 and Copa América winners, with France sharpening form via Kylian Mbappé's starring role in a 2-1 friendly win over Brazil on March 26. All frontrunners qualified dominantly, benefit from the December group draw potentially delaying clashes until semifinals, and maintain squad depth without major injury disruptions, amplifying knockout-stage upset potential in the expanded 48-team format.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoEspanha 15.8%
Inglaterra 12.8%
França 10.9%
Argentina 10.0%
$400,696,767 Vol.
$400,696,767 Vol.
Espanha
16%
Inglaterra
13%
França
11%
Argentina
10%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemanha
5%
Holanda
3%
Noruega
3%
Itália
2%
Bélgica
2%
Colômbia
2%
EUA
2%
Marrocos
2%
Japão
1%
Uruguai
1%
Croácia
1%
México
1%
Equador
1%
Suíça
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Áustria
1%
Coreia do Sul
<1%
Paraguai
<1%
Costa do Marfim
<1%
Argélia
<1%
Escócia
<1%
Tunísia
<1%
Austrália
<1%
Arábia Saudita
<1%
Egito
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordânia
<1%
Gana
<1%
Uzbequistão
<1%
África do Sul
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Catar
<1%
Nova Zelândia
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Irã
<1%
Espanha 15.8%
Inglaterra 12.8%
França 10.9%
Argentina 10.0%
$400,696,767 Vol.
$400,696,767 Vol.
Espanha
16%
Inglaterra
13%
França
11%
Argentina
10%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemanha
5%
Holanda
3%
Noruega
3%
Itália
2%
Bélgica
2%
Colômbia
2%
EUA
2%
Marrocos
2%
Japão
1%
Uruguai
1%
Croácia
1%
México
1%
Equador
1%
Suíça
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Áustria
1%
Coreia do Sul
<1%
Paraguai
<1%
Costa do Marfim
<1%
Argélia
<1%
Escócia
<1%
Tunísia
<1%
Austrália
<1%
Arábia Saudita
<1%
Egito
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordânia
<1%
Gana
<1%
Uzbequistão
<1%
África do Sul
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Catar
<1%
Nova Zelândia
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Irã
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain commands a slim 15.8% implied probability edge as trader consensus favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by their perfect UEFA qualifying campaign, world No. 1 ranking, and top billing in ESPN's March power rankings just 100 days from kickoff. The bunched top tier—including England (12.8%), France (10.9%), and defending champions Argentina (10.0%)—mirrors the parity among recent Euro 2024 and Copa América winners, with France sharpening form via Kylian Mbappé's starring role in a 2-1 friendly win over Brazil on March 26. All frontrunners qualified dominantly, benefit from the December group draw potentially delaying clashes until semifinals, and maintain squad depth without major injury disruptions, amplifying knockout-stage upset potential in the expanded 48-team format.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions