Rumpelstiltskin

Joined Mar 2025·1.8K views

$17.1K

Positions Value

$9,790.51

Biggest Win

207

Predictions

Profit/Loss

-$1,700.04

Past Day

Market

Avg

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

Yes 83.6¢

4,937.5 shares

83.6¢

98.6¢

$4,868.36$742.13 (17.99%)

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

Yes 83.6¢

4,937.5 shares

$4,868.36$742.13 (17.99%)

Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Yes 61.1¢

7,171.2 shares

61.1¢

42.5¢

$3,047.74-$1,332.57 (-30.42%)

Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Yes 61.1¢

7,171.2 shares

$3,047.74-$1,332.57 (-30.42%)

Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?

No 81.2¢

2,841.8 shares

81.2¢

92.6¢

$2,631.52$322.55 (13.97%)

Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?

No 81.2¢

2,841.8 shares

$2,631.52$322.55 (13.97%)

Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?

No 86.3¢

2,219.9 shares

86.3¢

98.3¢

$2,182.18$265.78 (13.87%)

Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?

No 86.3¢

2,219.9 shares

$2,182.18$265.78 (13.87%)

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Yes 26.5¢

2,510.0 shares

26.5¢

39.5¢

$991.45$325.75 (48.93%)

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Yes 26.5¢

2,510.0 shares

$991.45$325.75 (48.93%)

Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?

No 92.9¢

1,000.0 shares

92.9¢

96.7¢

$966.50$37.50 (4.04%)

Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?

No 92.9¢

1,000.0 shares

$966.50$37.50 (4.04%)

Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

No 68.3¢

1,122.9 shares

68.3¢

72.5¢

$814.12$47.07 (6.14%)

Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

No 68.3¢

1,122.9 shares

$814.12$47.07 (6.14%)

SSI public model released by September 30, 2026?

No 58.2¢

626.9 shares

58.2¢

77.5¢

$485.86$120.77 (33.08%)

SSI public model released by September 30, 2026?

No 58.2¢

626.9 shares

$485.86$120.77 (33.08%)

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?

Yes 49.9¢

487.7 shares

49.9¢

58¢

$282.89$39.53 (16.24%)

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?

Yes 49.9¢

487.7 shares

$282.89$39.53 (16.24%)

Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

No 34¢

699.9 shares

34¢

31.9¢

$223.26-$14.84 (-6.23%)

Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

No 34¢

699.9 shares

$223.26-$14.84 (-6.23%)

Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?

No 26.5¢

443.9 shares

26.5¢

38.5¢

$170.89$53.09 (45.06%)

Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?

No 26.5¢

443.9 shares

$170.89$53.09 (45.06%)

Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?

Yes 37¢

256.0 shares

37¢

52.5¢

$134.40$39.68 (41.89%)

Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?

Yes 37¢

256.0 shares

$134.40$39.68 (41.89%)

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?

Yes 84.5¢

160.7 shares

84.5¢

79.5¢

$127.78-$8.03 (-5.91%)

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?

Yes 84.5¢

160.7 shares

$127.78-$8.03 (-5.91%)

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?

Yes 21.9¢

403.4 shares

21.9¢

25¢

$100.66$12.31 (13.93%)

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?

Yes 21.9¢

403.4 shares

$100.66$12.31 (13.93%)

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?

Yes 46¢

225.3 shares

46¢

14.5¢

$32.66-$70.96 (-68.48%)

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?

Yes 46¢

225.3 shares

$32.66-$70.96 (-68.48%)

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?

Yes 45¢

337.9 shares

45¢

6.5¢

$21.97-$130.06 (-85.55%)

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?

Yes 45¢

337.9 shares

$21.97-$130.06 (-85.55%)

Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?

Yes 55¢

173.2 shares

55¢

12¢

$20.79-$74.48 (-78.18%)

Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?

Yes 55¢

173.2 shares

$20.79-$74.48 (-78.18%)

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?

No 54¢

6.0 shares

54¢

85.5¢

$5.10$1.88 (58.33%)

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?

No 54¢

6.0 shares

$5.10$1.88 (58.33%)

Anthropic acquired before 2027?

No 60¢

2.5 shares

60¢

97.2¢

$2.46$0.94 (61.91%)

Anthropic acquired before 2027?

No 60¢

2.5 shares

$2.46$0.94 (61.91%)

Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?

No 67¢

1.1 shares

67¢

97.5¢

$1.09$0.34 (45.52%)

Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?

No 67¢

1.1 shares

$1.09$0.34 (45.52%)