tetlock
Joined Mar 2026·0 views
$114.94
Positions Value
$1.69
Biggest Win
19
Predictions
Profit/Loss
Past Day
Current

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
No 56¢
47.7 shares56¢
46¢
$21.95-$4.77 (-17.86%)

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
No 56¢
47.7 shares$21.95-$4.77 (-17.86%)

Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 39.0 on May 8, 2026?
Yes 49¢
27.3 shares49¢
64¢
$17.45$4.09 (30.61%)

Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 39.0 on May 8, 2026?
Yes 49¢
27.3 shares$17.45$4.09 (30.61%)

Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
Yes 70¢
19.1 shares$14.51$1.15 (8.57%)

Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?
No 71¢
18.8 shares$13.45$0.09 (0.7%)

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
Yes 44¢
30.4 shares$13.06-$0.30 (-2.27%)

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
No 55¢
23.6 shares$8.39-$4.61 (-35.45%)

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
No 45¢
29.7 shares45¢
24.5¢
$7.27-$6.09 (-45.56%)

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
No 45¢
29.7 shares$7.27-$6.09 (-45.56%)

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
No 86¢
2.3 shares$1.87-$0.13 (-6.39%)

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
No 63.1¢
3.2 shares$1.82-$0.18 (-8.87%)

Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Yes 74.9¢
2.8 shares74.9¢
22.5¢
$0.64-$1.49 (-69.96%)

Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Yes 74.9¢
2.8 shares$0.64-$1.49 (-69.96%)

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?
Yes 28¢
6.4 shares$0.51-$1.29 (-71.43%)
