longdated-poli

Joined Apr 2024·274 views

$14.1K

Positions Value

$593.55

Biggest Win

3,587

Markets Traded

Total PnL: -$54.8K
Total Volume: 7M

Profit/Loss

$7.36

Past Day

Market

Avg

Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?

No 90.7¢

893.4 shares

90.7¢

88.9¢

$794.26-$16.05 (-1.98%)

Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?

No 90.7¢

893.4 shares

$794.26-$16.05 (-1.98%)

Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?

Yes 93.2¢

831.9 shares

93.2¢

89.4¢

$743.70-$31.47 (-4.06%)

Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?

Yes 93.2¢

831.9 shares

$743.70-$31.47 (-4.06%)

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?

Yes 89.3¢

891.9 shares

89.3¢

83¢

$739.81-$56.81 (-7.13%)

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?

Yes 89.3¢

891.9 shares

$739.81-$56.81 (-7.13%)

Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by December 31?

No 92.3¢

808.3 shares

92.3¢

87.5¢

$707.25-$38.40 (-5.15%)

Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by December 31?

No 92.3¢

808.3 shares

$707.25-$38.40 (-5.15%)

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?

Yes 93.4¢

1,070.4 shares

93.4¢

48.8¢

$521.84-$478.15 (-47.81%)

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?

Yes 93.4¢

1,070.4 shares

$521.84-$478.15 (-47.81%)

Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?

No 94.4¢

544.0 shares

94.4¢

92.9¢

$505.33-$8.25 (-1.61%)

Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?

No 94.4¢

544.0 shares

$505.33-$8.25 (-1.61%)

Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

No 76¢

649.5 shares

76¢

75¢

$487.14-$6.50 (-1.32%)

Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

No 76¢

649.5 shares

$487.14-$6.50 (-1.32%)

Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?

No 77¢

660.0 shares

77¢

73.5¢

$485.10-$23.10 (-4.55%)

Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?

No 77¢

660.0 shares

$485.10-$23.10 (-4.55%)

Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

No 77¢

657.2 shares

77¢

73.5¢

$483.02-$23.00 (-4.55%)

Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

No 77¢

657.2 shares

$483.02-$23.00 (-4.55%)

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?

No 92.2¢

498.9 shares

92.2¢

89.9¢

$448.23-$11.84 (-2.57%)

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?

No 92.2¢

498.9 shares

$448.23-$11.84 (-2.57%)

Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?

Yes 91.7¢

839.8 shares

91.7¢

51.1¢

$429.15-$340.73 (-44.26%)

Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?

Yes 91.7¢

839.8 shares

$429.15-$340.73 (-44.26%)

Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Yes 76¢

525.3 shares

76¢

74¢

$388.72-$10.51 (-2.63%)

Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Yes 76¢

525.3 shares

$388.72-$10.51 (-2.63%)

Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?

Yes 92.1¢

454.9 shares

92.1¢

84.5¢

$384.38-$34.63 (-8.27%)

Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?

Yes 92.1¢

454.9 shares

$384.38-$34.63 (-8.27%)

Will $ANSEM dip to $0.08 before 2027?

Yes 91¢

616.4 shares

91¢

60.7¢

$374.15-$186.87 (-33.31%)

Will $ANSEM dip to $0.08 before 2027?

Yes 91¢

616.4 shares

$374.15-$186.87 (-33.31%)

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?

No 82.5¢

403.8 shares

82.5¢

81¢

$327.05-$6.10 (-1.83%)

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?

No 82.5¢

403.8 shares

$327.05-$6.10 (-1.83%)

Will Big Walk win Best Independent Game at the 2026 Game Awards?

No 82.7¢

479.8 shares

82.7¢

61.3¢

$293.86-$102.85 (-25.93%)

Will Big Walk win Best Independent Game at the 2026 Game Awards?

No 82.7¢

479.8 shares

$293.86-$102.85 (-25.93%)

Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?

No 87.1¢

309.0 shares

87.1¢

82.1¢

$253.53-$15.60 (-5.8%)

Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?

No 87.1¢

309.0 shares

$253.53-$15.60 (-5.8%)

Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?

No 78¢

329.1 shares

78¢

75.5¢

$248.46-$8.23 (-3.21%)

Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?

No 78¢

329.1 shares

$248.46-$8.23 (-3.21%)

Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026?

No 86¢

297.0 shares

86¢

83.5¢

$247.98-$7.42 (-2.91%)

Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026?

No 86¢

297.0 shares

$247.98-$7.42 (-2.91%)

Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31?

No 93¢

242.9 shares

93¢

90.5¢

$219.80-$6.07 (-2.69%)

Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31?

No 93¢

242.9 shares

$219.80-$6.07 (-2.69%)