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US Economy predictions & odds

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US economic state at the end of 2026?

US economic state at the end of 2026?

34%

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

$3.2K Vol.

$1.6K Liq.

1

Ends in 9 months

GDP growth in 2026

GDP growth in 2026

35%

>2.5%

$27.8K Vol.

$2.8K Liq.

Ends in 9 months

US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

23%

$1M Vol.

$29.7K Liq.

66

Ends in 9 months

US GDP growth in Q2 2026?

US GDP growth in Q2 2026?

26%

2.0–2.5%

$2.6K Vol.

$5.9K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

4%

$25.6K Vol.

$1.5K Liq.

3

Ends in 9 months

Major US official out by May 31?

Major US official out by May 31?

42%

$4.6K Vol.

$19.1K Liq.

1

Ends in 23 days

US Trade Deficit in 2026?

US Trade Deficit in 2026?

36%

800–900B

$21.0K Vol.

$30.9K Liq.

Ends in 10 months

What price will Pump.fun hit in 2026?

What price will Pump.fun hit in 2026?

71%

↓ 0.0014

$107K Vol.

$9.0K Liq.

5

Ends in 8 months

MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

66%

December 31, 2026

$3M Vol.

$5.4K Liq.

123

Ends in about 2 months

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?

79%

↑ $7,450

$153K Vol.

$26.9K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026?

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026?

74%

↑ $740

$178K Vol.

$92.7K Liq.

1

Ends in 24 days

Hyperliquid airdrop by ....?

Hyperliquid airdrop by ....?

72%

December 31, 2027

$473K Vol.

$5.9K Liq.

33

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

39%

5.0%

$379K Vol.

$18.0K Liq.

13

Ends in 8 months

What price will Hyperliquid hit in May?

What price will Hyperliquid hit in May?

55%

↓ 38

$8.8K Vol.

$16.4K Liq.

Ends in 24 days

What will Apple (AAPL) hit in May 2026?

What will Apple (AAPL) hit in May 2026?

57%

↑ $296

$58.9K Vol.

$28.2K Liq.

Ends in 24 days

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

23%

$9.7K Vol.

$3.3K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

April Unemployment Rate

April Unemployment Rate

37%

4.3%

$69.3K Vol.

$19.9K Liq.

Fed abolished before 2027?

Fed abolished before 2027?

6%

$4.0K Vol.

$14.6K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

80%

$2.7K Vol.

$8.3K Liq.

2

Ends in 6 months

April Inflation US - Annual

April Inflation US - Annual

40%

3.7%

$309K Vol.

$74.7K Liq.

Ends in 4 days

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like US Economy.

Polymarket currently hosts 101 active markets for US Economy that lets you track or trade on predictions like “US economic state at the end of 2026?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $5.8M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Negative GDP growth in 2026?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “MegaETH airdrop by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “MegaETH airdrop by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 66% chance to December 31, 2026. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on US Economy predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.