President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with Russia and China initially elevated discussion around ending the U.S. moratorium in place since 1992, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Department officials emphasized preparations, subcritical experiments, or non-explosive activities rather than immediate underground detonations. Technical assessments indicate that restoring full readiness for a yield-producing test at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24 to 36 months, including regulatory, environmental, and safety steps. Congressional oversight and proposed legislation requiring explicit approval before any resumption add procedural constraints, while broader diplomatic signaling around arms control and stockpile stewardship continues to shape outcomes without confirmed explosive activity through early 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAmerykańska próba jądrowa przeprowadzona przez...?
Amerykańska próba jądrowa przeprowadzona przez...?
$667,461 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
30 czerwca 2026
2%
30 września 2026
5%
31 grudnia 2026
9%
$667,461 Wol.
30 czerwca 2026
$40,114 Wol.
2%
30 września 2026
$6,656 Wol.
5%
31 grudnia 2026
$10,472 Wol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with Russia and China initially elevated discussion around ending the U.S. moratorium in place since 1992, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Department officials emphasized preparations, subcritical experiments, or non-explosive activities rather than immediate underground detonations. Technical assessments indicate that restoring full readiness for a yield-producing test at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24 to 36 months, including regulatory, environmental, and safety steps. Congressional oversight and proposed legislation requiring explicit approval before any resumption add procedural constraints, while broader diplomatic signaling around arms control and stockpile stewardship continues to shape outcomes without confirmed explosive activity through early 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Wolumen
$667,461Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with Russia and China initially elevated discussion around ending the U.S. moratorium in place since 1992, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Department officials emphasized preparations, subcritical experiments, or non-explosive activities rather than immediate underground detonations. Technical assessments indicate that restoring full readiness for a yield-producing test at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24 to 36 months, including regulatory, environmental, and safety steps. Congressional oversight and proposed legislation requiring explicit approval before any resumption add procedural constraints, while broader diplomatic signaling around arms control and stockpile stewardship continues to shape outcomes without confirmed explosive activity through early 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$667,461Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with Russia and China initially elevated discussion around ending the U.S. moratorium in place since 1992, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Department officials emphasized preparations, subcritical experiments, or non-explosive activities rather than immediate underground detonations. Technical assessments indicate that restoring full readiness for a yield-producing test at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24 to 36 months, including regulatory, environmental, and safety steps. Congressional oversight and proposed legislation requiring explicit approval before any resumption add procedural constraints, while broader diplomatic signaling around arms control and stockpile stewardship continues to shape outcomes without confirmed explosive activity through early 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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