The U.S. maintains a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, with no such detonation recorded despite President Trump’s October 2025 directive to the Pentagon and subsequent September 2026 statements calling for tests on an “equal basis” with China and Russia. Allegations of Chinese low-yield “decoupled” tests at Lop Nur in 2020 and Russian activities have intensified calls for resumed U.S. testing to maintain stockpile confidence and verification parity. On September 30, 2026, the NNSA conducted a non-nuclear chemical high-explosive experiment at the Nevada National Security Site focused on refining detection algorithms rather than any explosive yield. Trader consensus on prediction markets assigns low implied probabilities to a U.S. nuclear test by late 2026, reflecting Senate opposition, international treaty constraints, technical timelines of 24–36 months for readiness, and the absence of confirmed site preparations or legislative changes. Upcoming diplomatic engagements and arms-control talks remain key variables that could influence momentum.