The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, with the National Nuclear Security Administration and lab directors assessing the stockpile as safe and effective through subcritical experiments, simulations, and the Stockpile Stewardship Program. President Trump's October 2025 statements directing testing "on an equal basis" with other nations prompted debate but were later clarified by officials as potentially referring to non-yield activities, with no explosive test conducted by mid-2026. New START's expiration earlier that year and concerns over Russian and Chinese activities have fueled discussion of test readiness, yet strong domestic opposition—including unanimous Nevada legislative resolutions, congressional proposals to codify the moratorium, and broad public support—combined with technical, diplomatic, and arms-control considerations continue to constrain policy shifts. Traders assign low probabilities to a test by late 2026 amid these structural barriers and lack of follow-through.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAmerykańska próba jądrowa przeprowadzona przez...?
Amerykańska próba jądrowa przeprowadzona przez...?
$770,068 Wol.
Sep 29, 2026
30 września 2026
1%
31 grudnia 2026
4%
$770,068 Wol.
30 września 2026
$57,189 Wol.
1%
31 grudnia 2026
$52,068 Wol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, with the National Nuclear Security Administration and lab directors assessing the stockpile as safe and effective through subcritical experiments, simulations, and the Stockpile Stewardship Program. President Trump's October 2025 statements directing testing "on an equal basis" with other nations prompted debate but were later clarified by officials as potentially referring to non-yield activities, with no explosive test conducted by mid-2026. New START's expiration earlier that year and concerns over Russian and Chinese activities have fueled discussion of test readiness, yet strong domestic opposition—including unanimous Nevada legislative resolutions, congressional proposals to codify the moratorium, and broad public support—combined with technical, diplomatic, and arms-control considerations continue to constrain policy shifts. Traders assign low probabilities to a test by late 2026 amid these structural barriers and lack of follow-through.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Wolumen
$770,068Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, with the National Nuclear Security Administration and lab directors assessing the stockpile as safe and effective through subcritical experiments, simulations, and the Stockpile Stewardship Program. President Trump's October 2025 statements directing testing "on an equal basis" with other nations prompted debate but were later clarified by officials as potentially referring to non-yield activities, with no explosive test conducted by mid-2026. New START's expiration earlier that year and concerns over Russian and Chinese activities have fueled discussion of test readiness, yet strong domestic opposition—including unanimous Nevada legislative resolutions, congressional proposals to codify the moratorium, and broad public support—combined with technical, diplomatic, and arms-control considerations continue to constrain policy shifts. Traders assign low probabilities to a test by late 2026 amid these structural barriers and lack of follow-through.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$770,068Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, with the National Nuclear Security Administration and lab directors assessing the stockpile as safe and effective through subcritical experiments, simulations, and the Stockpile Stewardship Program. President Trump's October 2025 statements directing testing "on an equal basis" with other nations prompted debate but were later clarified by officials as potentially referring to non-yield activities, with no explosive test conducted by mid-2026. New START's expiration earlier that year and concerns over Russian and Chinese activities have fueled discussion of test readiness, yet strong domestic opposition—including unanimous Nevada legislative resolutions, congressional proposals to codify the moratorium, and broad public support—combined with technical, diplomatic, and arms-control considerations continue to constrain policy shifts. Traders assign low probabilities to a test by late 2026 amid these structural barriers and lack of follow-through.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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