The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, with weapons labs repeatedly affirming no technical or military necessity for resumption amid ongoing stockpile stewardship and modernization. Trader consensus prices the leading outcome— a test by December 31, 2026—at just 9%, reflecting significant barriers including years-long preparations, high costs, and political opposition from Nevada lawmakers like Sen. Jacky Rosen, who visited the site April 13 to push back against resumption proposals. Recent CTBTO warnings on April 30 against U.S. or Russian testing, alongside Trump's FY27 nuclear triad budget boost without explicit test funding, underscore diplomatic and fiscal hurdles; congressional appropriations debates this summer could shift sentiment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAmerykańska próba jądrowa przeprowadzona przez...?
Amerykańska próba jądrowa przeprowadzona przez...?
$664,780 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
30 czerwca 2026
2%
30 września 2026
6%
31 grudnia 2026
9%
$664,780 Wol.
30 czerwca 2026
$38,761 Wol.
2%
30 września 2026
$5,584 Wol.
6%
31 grudnia 2026
$10,216 Wol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, with weapons labs repeatedly affirming no technical or military necessity for resumption amid ongoing stockpile stewardship and modernization. Trader consensus prices the leading outcome— a test by December 31, 2026—at just 9%, reflecting significant barriers including years-long preparations, high costs, and political opposition from Nevada lawmakers like Sen. Jacky Rosen, who visited the site April 13 to push back against resumption proposals. Recent CTBTO warnings on April 30 against U.S. or Russian testing, alongside Trump's FY27 nuclear triad budget boost without explicit test funding, underscore diplomatic and fiscal hurdles; congressional appropriations debates this summer could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Wolumen
$664,780Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, with weapons labs repeatedly affirming no technical or military necessity for resumption amid ongoing stockpile stewardship and modernization. Trader consensus prices the leading outcome— a test by December 31, 2026—at just 9%, reflecting significant barriers including years-long preparations, high costs, and political opposition from Nevada lawmakers like Sen. Jacky Rosen, who visited the site April 13 to push back against resumption proposals. Recent CTBTO warnings on April 30 against U.S. or Russian testing, alongside Trump's FY27 nuclear triad budget boost without explicit test funding, underscore diplomatic and fiscal hurdles; congressional appropriations debates this summer could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$664,780Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, with weapons labs repeatedly affirming no technical or military necessity for resumption amid ongoing stockpile stewardship and modernization. Trader consensus prices the leading outcome— a test by December 31, 2026—at just 9%, reflecting significant barriers including years-long preparations, high costs, and political opposition from Nevada lawmakers like Sen. Jacky Rosen, who visited the site April 13 to push back against resumption proposals. Recent CTBTO warnings on April 30 against U.S. or Russian testing, alongside Trump's FY27 nuclear triad budget boost without explicit test funding, underscore diplomatic and fiscal hurdles; congressional appropriations debates this summer could shift sentiment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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