Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean anchors trader expectations in Florida’s 4th congressional district, where the seat carries a Cook Political Report R+5 partisan voting index and has delivered GOP victories of 57-43 in 2024 and 61-39 in 2022. Bean’s March 2026 fundraising edge of $1.5 million raised and $1.2 million cash on hand far exceeds Democratic primary contenders such as Michael Kirwan, while the Republican primary features only token opposition. A crowded Democratic field ahead of the August 18 primary lacks a dominant candidate, reinforcing the 80.5 percent Republican probability as a reflection of district fundamentals and historical margins rather than recent polling shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFL-04 House Election Winner
FL-04 House Election Winner
$11,781 Wol.
$11,781 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
81%
Democratic Party
20%
$11,781 Wol.
$11,781 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$6,745 Wol.
81%
Democratic Party
$5,036 Wol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean anchors trader expectations in Florida’s 4th congressional district, where the seat carries a Cook Political Report R+5 partisan voting index and has delivered GOP victories of 57-43 in 2024 and 61-39 in 2022. Bean’s March 2026 fundraising edge of $1.5 million raised and $1.2 million cash on hand far exceeds Democratic primary contenders such as Michael Kirwan, while the Republican primary features only token opposition. A crowded Democratic field ahead of the August 18 primary lacks a dominant candidate, reinforcing the 80.5 percent Republican probability as a reflection of district fundamentals and historical margins rather than recent polling shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Wolumen
$11,781Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean anchors trader expectations in Florida’s 4th congressional district, where the seat carries a Cook Political Report R+5 partisan voting index and has delivered GOP victories of 57-43 in 2024 and 61-39 in 2022. Bean’s March 2026 fundraising edge of $1.5 million raised and $1.2 million cash on hand far exceeds Democratic primary contenders such as Michael Kirwan, while the Republican primary features only token opposition. A crowded Democratic field ahead of the August 18 primary lacks a dominant candidate, reinforcing the 80.5 percent Republican probability as a reflection of district fundamentals and historical margins rather than recent polling shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$11,781Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean anchors trader expectations in Florida’s 4th congressional district, where the seat carries a Cook Political Report R+5 partisan voting index and has delivered GOP victories of 57-43 in 2024 and 61-39 in 2022. Bean’s March 2026 fundraising edge of $1.5 million raised and $1.2 million cash on hand far exceeds Democratic primary contenders such as Michael Kirwan, while the Republican primary features only token opposition. A crowded Democratic field ahead of the August 18 primary lacks a dominant candidate, reinforcing the 80.5 percent Republican probability as a reflection of district fundamentals and historical margins rather than recent polling shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania