Incumbent María Elvira Salazar holds a narrow lead in Florida’s 27th Congressional District after the November 3 election, with unofficial results showing her ahead by roughly 1,090 votes or 0.44 percent in the Miami-Dade County seat. This margin triggered an automatic machine recount under state law, scheduled for completion by November 12, though election officials have publicly indicated the outcome is unlikely to change. Prior polling averaged near even or showed a modest Republican edge in the newly drawn district, consistent with Salazar’s prior wins and the area’s partisan leanings. Traders assign her overwhelming probability because the current count has held steady and historical patterns favor incumbents in close House races. A reversal would require the recount to produce a substantial shift or successful legal challenges to alter certification by the November 17 deadline.