Xi Jinping's sustained consolidation of authority through ongoing military purges and anti-corruption drives underpins trader consensus that a coup attempt is unlikely before 2027. Early 2026 removals of senior Central Military Commission figures, framed officially as addressing graft and disloyalty, eliminated potential rivals and reinforced party oversight of the PLA without triggering broader instability. China's opaque one-party system lacks organized opposition factions or institutional mechanisms for challenges, while Xi maintains dominance over appointments, security apparatus, and policy. Although isolated rumors circulated amid the shakeups, credible reporting shows continuity in leadership functions, including diplomatic engagements and economic planning into mid-2026. Low-probability shifts could stem from acute health events affecting top officials or severe economic dislocations sparking elite fractures, but current structures make such triggers remote.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano3% szansa
$153,586 Wol.
$153,586 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% szansa
$153,586 Wol.
$153,586 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping's sustained consolidation of authority through ongoing military purges and anti-corruption drives underpins trader consensus that a coup attempt is unlikely before 2027. Early 2026 removals of senior Central Military Commission figures, framed officially as addressing graft and disloyalty, eliminated potential rivals and reinforced party oversight of the PLA without triggering broader instability. China's opaque one-party system lacks organized opposition factions or institutional mechanisms for challenges, while Xi maintains dominance over appointments, security apparatus, and policy. Although isolated rumors circulated amid the shakeups, credible reporting shows continuity in leadership functions, including diplomatic engagements and economic planning into mid-2026. Low-probability shifts could stem from acute health events affecting top officials or severe economic dislocations sparking elite fractures, but current structures make such triggers remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Wolumen
$153,586Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping's sustained consolidation of authority through ongoing military purges and anti-corruption drives underpins trader consensus that a coup attempt is unlikely before 2027. Early 2026 removals of senior Central Military Commission figures, framed officially as addressing graft and disloyalty, eliminated potential rivals and reinforced party oversight of the PLA without triggering broader instability. China's opaque one-party system lacks organized opposition factions or institutional mechanisms for challenges, while Xi maintains dominance over appointments, security apparatus, and policy. Although isolated rumors circulated amid the shakeups, credible reporting shows continuity in leadership functions, including diplomatic engagements and economic planning into mid-2026. Low-probability shifts could stem from acute health events affecting top officials or severe economic dislocations sparking elite fractures, but current structures make such triggers remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$153,586Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping's sustained consolidation of authority through ongoing military purges and anti-corruption drives underpins trader consensus that a coup attempt is unlikely before 2027. Early 2026 removals of senior Central Military Commission figures, framed officially as addressing graft and disloyalty, eliminated potential rivals and reinforced party oversight of the PLA without triggering broader instability. China's opaque one-party system lacks organized opposition factions or institutional mechanisms for challenges, while Xi maintains dominance over appointments, security apparatus, and policy. Although isolated rumors circulated amid the shakeups, credible reporting shows continuity in leadership functions, including diplomatic engagements and economic planning into mid-2026. Low-probability shifts could stem from acute health events affecting top officials or severe economic dislocations sparking elite fractures, but current structures make such triggers remote.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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