Olivia Rodrigo’s “The Cure” sits as the clear market leader in the VMA Best Alternative category at 71.5% implied probability, fueled by her established pop-alternative crossover appeal, strong critical reception for the track’s introspective lyrics and handcrafted video, and momentum from her chart-topping third album. The other six nominees—Sombr’s “Homewrecker,” Twenty One Pilots’ “Drag Path,” MGK & Fred Durst’s “Fix Ur Face,” Noah Kahan’s “The Great Divide,” Tame Impala’s “Dracula,” and Geese’s “Taxes”—trail significantly, reflecting narrower voter bases and less mainstream visibility ahead of the September 27 ceremony. With fan voting closing today and the show airing live on CBS and Paramount+, traders are pricing in Rodrigo’s edge while noting that late swings remain possible in this newly introduced category.